It was another solid performance for our NFL Anytime TD props in Week 15, as we went 4-4 to run our season-long record to 33-52. However, because all 4 winners were at juicy plus-money prices, we profited +1.12 units. That cut the overall deficit to -3.07 units for the season.
Ready to make the NFL Week 16 slate of games even more entertaining? Our staff gives out their best Anytime Touchdown props below. Good luck, folks, and Merry Christmas from our team to yours!
AZ at CAR - 1:00 PM EST
I'm going back to the chapel this week and looking at Trey McBride to score a TD. Yes, I know, you know, we all know that I might be a glutton for punishment with this one but hear this logic out!
I backed Trey twice to score in Week 12 and Week 13. It didn't hit either time. Disappointing but I took comfort that he crushed both weeks. And honestly, he has really been great all season without any receiving TDs to show for it. If he has 4-5 more TDs, we would be talking about him as a top-10 receiver, not just TE. I think McBride's biggest issue might just be that Arizona is so mid that they are not in a position to score enough. They average 3.2 trips to the Red Zone a game, which ranks 16th (totally mid). And on those trips, they rank 21st in TD conversions (53%). But nothing solves a middling offense like playing Carolina.
The Cardinals travel to Carolina for a 1 pm Sunday match-up. Touch start time for a West Coast team, but Carolina touts the 31st-ranked D vs the TE. And we know it can work because we hit on Calcaterra@ +490 2 weeks ago vs Carolina. But here is the real rub on why Trey is scoring. Fair warning, you might hate this logic, but......
This is personal. Yours truly is taking on his best buddy's fantasy roster featuring Trey "Saving it all for the Fantasy Playoffs" McBride. It's the playoffs and it's a 15+ year-old league. No stats to back this up. Just that gut-wrenching feeling that my favorite player of the year explodes in a do-or-die semifinal matchup.
So, I'm officially taking McBride to score a TD (+140 @ Caesars) because he is due and it's going to be hilarious when he knocks me out of the playoffs. He is so due, and it would be so hilarious that 2+ TDs @$950 and 3+ TDs @+6500 might be in my own bet slip future also. Either way, wish me luck.
PHI at WSH - 1:00 PM EST
Brian Robinson Jr. is going to get an anytime touchdown this week as the Commanders face the Eagles in a huge NFC East clash. Robinson has been one of the most reliable targets in Washington’s backfield. He’s scored 8 TDs on the season while averaging just over 64 rushing yards per game.
He’s looking unstoppable. Against the Saints, he logged 21 carries for 65 yards, although he didn’t find the end zone, it still shows he can handle a heavy workload and contribute in big moments.
While the Eagles easily have one of the best defenses in the league, ranking 7th against the run, Robinson is the tool the Commanders need if they’re going to be competitive. His consistent involvement in both the rushing and receiving games makes him the dual-threat option they need to succeed. So, I see him getting an above-average target rate.
In the end, the Commanders have leaned on him heavily in the red zone all season, and his physical and brute running style matches up well against the Eagles' tough defensive front.
Washington is fighting to maintain playoff hopes and Robinson’s the man to keep them in this. Will they get the win? Perhaps not. The Eagles are dominant; however, Robinson is going to be the one that finds the end zone at least once in this divisional showdown.
Go ahead and cash that check.
PHI at WSH - 1:00 PM EST
This is going to be a tough-fought game for both teams with playoff implications involved. The Eagles have been red hot all season and have no intentions of slowing down against a pretty solid Commanders team.
The Commanders passing defense holds up pretty well and ranks high on the charts, but their rushing defense + red zone defense can't say the same. Ranking 24th giving up 131.7 yards and 13 rushing TDs this season.
Their red zone defense isn't spectacular either letting teams score 65% when they enter the red zone that's almost dead last in the NFL. When the Eagles enter the red zone strong possibility, they score. Let's see Jalen running one in for us to cash it and get us back into the W column!
NE at BUF - 4:25 PM EST
Let's go with Dalton Kincaid for the anytime TD. There isn’t much rhythm or reason for taking Kincaid this week besides a gut feeling. He’s reeled in two TDs this year, so he is not precisely the Bills' number one red zone threat.
However, it’s late-season football, and the Bills are taking on a soft Patriots team. I don’t think they’ll give Allen as much free reign as he’s had. I wouldn’t expect him to be running the ball nearly as much, which could create more opportunities for Kincaid.
His target numbers have already been increasing, with 23 targets over the last three games. Especially with the weather in Buffalo forecasted with a 17-degree high and snow, the Bills can’t move the ball far through the air. I expect to see a healthy number of check-downs to the TE on Sunday.
DET at CHI - 1:00 PM EST
We've cashed two weeks in a row (Quentin Johnston and Drake London), bringing us back into the black while setting us up nicely for a late-season heater.
Speaking of getting hot at the right time, after a slow start to the season, Sam LaPorta had his first 100-yard game of the season last week against the Bills. He is also just 3 weeks removed from scoring 2 touchdowns against the Bears in Detroit.
This Chicago secondary is having all kinds of issues against opposing tight ends right now, having allowed the most receiving yards to the position over the last 4 games. With 22 players on IR (16 defensive players), the days of Detroit blowing out opponents are likely gone, and LaPorta will need a big performance here if the Lions are going to get to 13-3.
TB at DAL - 8:20 PM EST
Although my Cowboys heart hates this play, I think there's enough value in it to pull the trigger. Dallas has shown a lot more grit in recent weeks, but their secondary still has a ton of issues. Evans should feast against a team that ranks 31st in yards per pass allowed.
The former Texas A&M star was plagued earlier in the year by a strained hammy, but he's looking more and more healthy each week. Evans has found the end zone three times over the last two weeks, and I bet he'll add another to that total on Sunday Night Football.
DET at CHI - 1:00 PM EST
Okay, I'll admit it! I have a crush on Amon-Ra St. Brown. Not only is he a good-looking dude, but he's also cashed for me three times this season. If the books want to keep making him plus money, I'll keep going to war with him. Oddly enough, St. Brown has scored a TD each time one of our team members has picked him.
The former USC standout has hit paydirt 10 times already this season, and he's not slowing down any time soon. With David Montgomery on the sidelines due to injury, St. Brown could see even more red zone targets. Let's cash with my favorite guy once again in Week 16.
DET at CHI: 1:00 PM EST
Patrick is the hot hand in Detroit. He has 3 scores in the last 2 and has averaged 7.5 Recs in that time. Jared Goff seems to be more comfortable throwing to the 7-year man out of Utah, and that comes in handy late in the season.
This is one of the highest scoring totals of the week, and the Bears' secondary is yielding a ton of YAC to opposing wideouts. The value play is in Patrick