It was a rough performance for our NFL Anytime TD props in Week 12, as we went 2-6 to run our season-long record to 25-34. That means that we're back in the black for the season with a deficit of -1.63 units. Can we get an Amen for the power of plus money prices?
Ready to make the NFL Week 13 slate of games even more fun? Our staff gives out their top Anytime Touchdown props! Happy Thanksgiving, folks!
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PHI at BAL - 4:25 PM EDT
Don't look now but Mikey Nobs Enterprises has won two weeks in a row! Yes, sometimes Christmas miracles come early! AJ Brown found the end zone last week, but for Week 13 I'm rolling with his teammate DeVonta Smith.
"Smitty" has been dogged by injuries this season and was inactive last week against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The former Heisman winner from Alabama is currently as questionable, but this is a fantastic price on him if he plays.
This Baltimore secondary really struggles against talented wideouts, so that makes me like Smith even more in this spot. The Ravens rank just 24th in yards per pass allowed. Get us to the pay window, Smitty!
PHI at BAL - 4:25 PM EDT
Starvin' Marvin Jr. and the Cardinals offense turned in an awful performance for me last week, which dropped my record down to 4-4 on the year. It's time for me to get back in the race for the top spot in our contest with a big tight end!
Andrews had a slow start to the season, but he's been one of Lamar Jackson's favorite targets of late. He's scored touchdowns in two out of his last three games. I feel good about Andrews's chances, even against a stout Philly secondary.
The Eagles rank 7th in sack rate, so they should be able to get some pressure on Lamar in the red zone. If that happens, expect Lamar to target his favorite tight end more often and for Andrews to hit paydirt for us on Thanksgiving Weekend! Let's go!
AZ at MIN - 1:00 PM EDT
This week I am breaking my own rule and doubling down on the same player. Last week I made the case why Trey McBride was due for TD last week and a big second half to the season. Unfortunately, there was no TD, but he delivered one hell of a maid-of-honor speech!
McBride had 12 catches on 15 targets for 133 yards! That's a career-high in yards and matches his career-high on receptions. He had one red zone target that was thrown over his head on a third and goal attempt. Sadly, too much of the game took place in mid-field with only 4 total red zone play attempts in the whole game. Great for punters but not ideal for TDs.
This Sunday Arizona travels to Minnesota for a 1 pm (EST) game. McBride has a tougher matchup this week, but last week made clear to me that the coaches want the ball in his hands. And he is too talented to not get in the endzone for the rest of this season. It's only a matter of time.
Fun fact: Did you know Minnesota is the largest Turkey-producing state in the country? With over 33.5 million turkeys produced in 2024, I am hoping some excess tryptophan makes it back to the Vikings linebackers this weekend! Happy Thanksgiving!
LV at KC - 3:00 PM EDT (Friday)
We are hot with the anytime TDS!! I'm taking Kareem Hunt Anytime TD this week. The Raiders are heading into a hostile Arrowhead Stadium and they aren't bringing the big guns. The Raiders are having a rough go of it this year that's for sure and I think this is going to be a classic beat down by the Chiefs.
Arguably the best team in football is coming off a scrape by victory against the Panthers and this week they need to make a statement and unfortunately, the Raiders will be on the receiving end of that. The Raiders rank almost at the bottom in terms of red zone defense + scoring defense.
Hunt gets a ton of carries for the Chiefs being their primary back and he will have a ton of chances at the endzone for sure. I'm following my logic lots of scoring = success for us with the any-time TDs. LET'S ROLL!
LV at KC - 3:00 PM EDT (Friday)
Thanks to Ant for reminding me that we can pick from the game on Black Friday! I'll follow his lead and take another Chiefs player to find the end zone. Kelce has only scored two touchdowns so far this season, but he matches up incredibly well against the Raiders porous defense.
Just how bad is Las Vegas on that side of the ball? They've allowed 300 yards and 5 TDs to opposing tight ends over the last month. Kansas City has the highest team total on the board in Week 13, so I'll gladly take Kelce at plus money here.
CHI at DET - 12:30 PM EDT (Thursday)
John Madden popularized the "Turducken" in 1996. For those unfamiliar, a Turducken consists of a chicken, stuffed inside of a duck, stuffed inside of a turkey. Personally, no thanks; but continuing with the Thanksgiving Day tradition of games in Detroit, here's a 3 pick Turducken.
With Montgomery limited in practice on Tuesday and coming into a short week, expect Gibbs to get a bulk of the carries.
Chicago's run defense hasn't been great and allowed TDs to both Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs in the last two weeks. Expect the NFC North RB TD train to continue against the Bears tomorrow.
CHI at DET - 12:30 PM EDT (Thursday)
After Jaylon Johnson put a clamp on Justin Jefferson last week, expect him to be on Amon-Ra St. Brown a lot tomorrow.
Number two wide receivers have exploded against the Bears as they're working through internal struggles with their CB opposite Johnson. Williams is primed for a big game here and I see at least one TD.
CHI at DET - 12:30 PM EDT (Thursday)
If you make it through the turkey and the duck to get to the chicken, you're probably pretty full and maybe a little sick.
Detroit's defense has been great at scheming pressure on opposing QBs even after losing Hutchinson. That said, Caleb Williams has been good against the blitz recently and his WR output seems to go in spurts.
After big games last week from Keenan Allen and DJ Moore, I could see Odunze getting targeted a lot this week. The big bodied rookie has a tendency to get open and Williams loves finding him. If we're taking one of the Bears WRs as the "final course" I like Odunze to find the end zone.
SEA at NYJ - 1:00 PM EDT
This could be one of the most critical matchups of the weekend, with the Seahawks traveling to New York to play an ailing Jets team. They’re tied with the Cardinals at the top of the NFC West, so this could be Seattle’s best chance to pull ahead in the division.
That’s why I like the combo line of the Seattle moneyline, with Kenneth Walker III scoring an anytime TD. The Jets have been disappointing with a 3-8 record, but specifically terrible at defending on the ground. They allow 130 yards of rushing a game on the season and 140 yards over their last three games.
Not only are they allowing teams to beat them on the ground, but they’re also letting them get into the endzone at insanely high rates. The Jets are tied for second to last on rushing TDs allowed at 1.5 a game. With Walker III being the unquestioned lead back in Seattle, that should land him a few excellent opportunities to score on Sunday.
This is all coming together simultaneously, as the Seahawks are as healthy as they’ve been all season. I think Seattle has an excellent opportunity to take the game behind a big effort from Walker III.
PHI at BAL - 4:25 PM EDT
I think that AJ has been a model of consistency this season as he's had over 7 100-yard games and quite a few explosive performances along the way. This is even highlighted by the 2 games with over 100 receiving yards and a TD in November alone.
His ability to create big plays downfield and dominate in contested catch situations makes him the top target for Jalen Hurts, especially in high-pressure games like this one. He’s not one for missing opportunities.
It won't be easy for him to get it, but I'm sure he'll notch the TD.
The Ravens’ secondary, while strong, will have its hands full against an Eagles offense that has scored 26 or more points in 6 straight games. They're firing on all cylinders and I just don't see the Ravens containing everyone, let alone AJ Brown.
Brown’s combination of volume, red-zone efficiency, and his deep-threat make him the most likely receiver to break through Baltimore's defense (in the air, of course).
With the Eagles thriving offensively and the game projected to be a high-scoring game, Brown has a strong opportunity to find the end zone — yet again.
LAR at NO - 4:05 PM EDT
LA has been a prolific offense this year, and this week they get to go against the most forgettable defense in the league. New Orleans is giving up the 3rd most passing yards per game in the NFL.
Veteran Matt Stafford is resembling a 2006 Cab Sav, only getting better with age. The Super Bowl Champ has been steadily connecting with his favorite WR from East Washington, who’s averaging just under 8 catches a game in the last 5 weeks.
It’s been back-to-back weeks of scoring for the 31-year-old Kupp… But I like him to make it 3 weeks in a row, against a secondary that is more lost than the TV remote circa 3 PM on Thanksgiving in your living room.