The final weekend of the 2025 MLB regular season has arrived, and the only for-sure thing is that the playoff picture is anything but settled. With both leagues still sorting out division titles and wild card spots, these last 3 games for several teams are loaded with tons of pressure, tiebreaker implications, and potential Monday chaos if some teams have to play 163 games.
Here’s what matters, who’s in the mix, and what could push this into madness.
The AL Central race is a dead heat between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians, both sitting at 86-73. However, Cleveland holds the lead through the tiebreaker. Only one of them is guaranteed to move on — either as division winner or wild card — while the other risks missing the postseason entirely if they don’t get some wins this weekend.
Detroit heads to Boston for a critical series against a Red Sox team that currently holds the second AL wild card slot. This matchup has the highest stakes of any series this weekend because not only does Detroit need to win at least 2, but a sweep and Cleveland stumbling could hand them the division. But here's the biggest twist of all of this — if Detroit gets swept and Houston wins out, the Tigers are out of the picture entirely.
Detroit’s season has been a strange ride. Prior to the All-Star break, they looked like a lock. They were peaking at 59-34 and were one of the hottest teams in baseball. But things unraveled fast. They're still holding on thanks to power from Riley Greene with his 36 HRs, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter, along with lights-out bullpen arms like Tarik Skubal and Kyle Finnegan. The offense hasn't been consistent, but it's dangerous in spurts.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is playing a weaker Rangers team that’s already out of the race, which on paper definitely gives them an easier path to the playoffs. They also hold the tiebreaker over Detroit, which could be huge if both clubs finish 89-74. The Guardians have gone 17-3 over their last 20, mostly on the back of a young and stingy rotation, and 5 of those wins were against Detroit. Jose Ramírez continues to anchor the lineup with 30 dingers on the season, but it’s the trio of Nic Enright, Kolby Allard, and Parker Messick that has been mowing down opponents lately and giving this lineup some scary depth.
If the Tigers and Guardians finish tied, Cleveland gets the division, and Detroit's fate depends on Houston. But if Detroit outpaces Cleveland by one, they walk away with the AL Central. There’s even a chance of a three-way logjam at 89-74 with Boston or Houston involved, which could trigger a wild game 163 on Monday evening.
While Boston, with their 87-71 record, is technically still in danger, it’s clearly in the best shape among the bubble teams. They only need a single win over Detroit to seal their wild-card ticket. That said, there’s no chance that they’ll catch the Yankees even if they happen to sweep the Tigers.
Boston’s success this season has largely come from its pitching staff. Garrett Crochet has been a monster on the mound with an 18-5 record and 2.59 ERA, backed up by Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen. Their lineup hasn’t exploded the way some may have hoped, but Trevor Story has stepped up with 25 HRs and 96 RBIs, while Jarren Duran adds extra base pop and speed.
Houston, on the other hand, is clinging to life, and as it stands right now, they’re on the outside looking in. One game behind Detroit, they need to sweep the Angels and hope for help. The Angels are a team already out of contention, so that could play into their scheme as well. They hold no tiebreakers over either Detroit or Cleveland, so even matching records won’t be enough. It’s simply win or hit the golf course.
The Astros' lineup, as usual, leans on a few familiar faces such as Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena, but the key has been their bullpen. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu have been elite, and AJ Blubaugh has emerged as a late-season weapon with a 1.93 ERA.
If Houston wins out and Detroit loses at least 2, the Astros sneak in. But anything less and they’ll be home watching October baseball for the first time since 2016.
In the NL, the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and Cubs are in. That last wild card is still wide open.
The current leader is the New York Mets, sitting at 82-77, but they don’t control every lever. That’s because they lose tiebreakers to Cincinnati and Arizona, which means finishing tied could still push them out of the seeding. Sure, they face the Marlins this weekend, and they’ve had a down year, but they still have pride to play for. The Mets have arguably the softest path this weekend, but it’s a trap if they don’t stay sharp and keep the pressure on.
Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor have carried the Mets offensively, combining for 100+ home runs. The bigger question is pitching. Injuries have definitely tested their depth, but rookie Nolan McLean and his 2.06 ERA have become a major contributor. He and Edwin Díaz will be leaned on heavily no matter how this turns out.
If the Mets go 2-1 or better, they should be safe. If they lose the series, the door opens for Cincinnati or Arizona to swoop in and get a spot at the table.
The Reds are just one game behind the Mets and hold an 81-78 record, but they face a brutal opponent. The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central, but they’re playing for postseason momentum and potential seeding. If they let the Reds sweep them, there’s a chance for the Phillies to take the #1 seed in the AL.
Cincinnati has been inconsistent all year, but surged with a sweep of the Cubs to get here. Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Noelvi Marté provide pop and speed, while the young rotation led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott has been surprisingly sharp. Greene has a 2.76 ERA, and Abbott isn’t far behind at 2.80.
It’s clear that the Reds need to win the series as a sweep guarantees nothing unless the Mets collapse, but 2-1 could push them into a tie and force tiebreaker scenarios.
Arizona is technically still alive with its 80-79 record, but it’s tight. They need a sweep against the Padres and some help to make it through.
It’s not impossible, but nonetheless difficult. San Diego has secured a spot, but their seeding isn’t quite set. They could move up and take the #4 seed from the Cubs, but even that is a tall order. They could rest some arms or go for a tune-up. Either way, it’s a tough draw for the Diamondbacks, who’ve been one of the streakiest teams in baseball.
Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte have provided steady offense, and even Eugenio Suarez before he was traded away at the deadline. On top of that, their bullpen has a few hidden gems. Andrew Saalfrank and Cristian Mena have decent ERAs, but this team has little margin for error.
Arizona’s best shot is a sweep and a Mets collapse. But even 2-1 might trigger a game 163, depending on how the Reds finish out against the Brewers.
This year could end with not 1 but 2 tiebreaker games on Monday.
In the AL Central, if Cleveland and Detroit both finish 89-74, Cleveland wins the division thanks to the tiebreaker. But if they finish 88-75 and tied with Boston or Houston for a wild card, things get a little more complicated. A three-way tie could mean extra games.
In the NL, a three-way tie between the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks favors Cincinnati, based on combined head-to-head tiebreaker rules. That could leave New York out even if they finish with the same record as Arizona or Cincy.
It’s a long season, sure, but this is why baseball's 162-game season doesn’t lose steam in late September. Every inning, every pitch, every late-inning rally or blown save this weekend could swing October.
The matchups are tight, the standings are tighter, and if a few teams falter, we could be waking up Monday to not just one, but multiple win-or-go-home tiebreaker games.
No matter who comes out on top, one thing’s undeniably clear — this final weekend is loaded with plenty of tension, and the postseason drama has already started.