Welcome to the last day of the MLB All-Star Break. The regular season will resume on Friday, but we've still got one more day to break down some college football matchups for Week 1. Feel free to see my breakdowns of Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina, Buffalo vs. Minnesota, and Fresno State vs. Kansas from earlier writeups this week.
One of the fun matchups on the Week 1 card pits the Northwestern Wildcats against the Tulane Green Wave, which will take place on Saturday, August 30 at Noon EDT on ESPNU. It'll be a home opener for Tulane, which finished last season with an impressive 9-5 mark.
I've broken down this Big Ten vs. AAC battle from every angle and came up with an early best bet for your reading pleasure. Good luck, and I'll be back shortly with some MLB action for Friday.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Tulane -7 back in April. To a lot of folks' surprise, early money has shown up for Northwestern, so much so that the line is now sitting at Tulane -6.5 at most shops. Circa, one of the sharpest books in the land, is even dealing Tulane -6.
As for the game total, all things have been quiet on that front. The opener of 47.5 seems to be holding steady on most sports betting apps. There are a few rogue 47s in the market if you're interested in taking the over.
Northwestern struggled through a 4-8 season in 2024, but they did show some signs of life with wins over Maryland and Purdue. The Wildcats also played pretty well against a very good Illinois squad to end the year. Even with last year's subpar record, I'm expecting some positive regression for Northwestern in 2025.
The Wildcats offense will be much improved this season, mainly because they added QB Preston Stone through the portal. This kid was a star at SMU before getting hurt, and he immediately gives the NW offense the ability to put up more points. Running back Cam Porter also gives this unit some added punch.
Northwestern's defense surprised me last season. Their numbers were nothing to write home about, but they weren't too bad either (53rd in yards per rush allowed and 63rd in yards per pass allowed). Nine of the eleven projected starters on D will be upperclassmen.
Tulane had another solid season in 2024, as they finished up 9-5 overall and 7-2 in conference play. I was especially impressed that they only lost to Kansas State by 7 in Week 2. Even still, the Green Wave stumbled at the end of the year with losses to Memphis, Army, and Florida.
The Green Wave QB situation looks a bit unsettling this season. They brought Kadin Semonza, who was a stud at Ball State but could struggle here against a Big Ten defense. The offense will have lots of question marks, especially since six of their projected starters are from the portal.
Tulane's defense was a pleasant surprise last year. They struggled at times against the run, but their secondary was solid (15th in yards per pass allowed). They also did a good job of rushing the passer.
I played this one at +7 back in the spring but still like it quite a bit at the current +6.5 number. I would personally buy to +7 if you have any option that will give you -120 juice for that. I'm also putting a few dollars on the Wildcats to win this one outright.
I don't think this current point spread reflects just how much better Northwestern's offense can be with a proven veteran like Stone under center. Tulane has some horses, but they also lost their dynamic offensive duo in QB Darian Mensah and RB Makhi Hughes. I'll take the points with Northwestern and sprinkle a little something on the moneyline.
Prediction: Northwestern 24 - Tulane 23