Well, sports bettors, we're edging closer and closer to college football Week 1. Since we're in the middle of sports purgatory (AKA: the MLB All- Star Break), I think it's a fantastic time to pick apart some matchups from the early August card.
One of the more intriguing matchups on the Week 1 card features the Minnesota Golden Gophers going up against the Buffalo Bulls, which will take place on Thursday, August 28 at 8:00 PM EDT on FS1. You can bet that lots of hardcore Big Ten fans will be tuned in for this one.
I've broken down this matchup from every angle and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the game!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Minnesota -18.5 back in the latter part of spring. A fair amount of action has come in on Buffalo, so much so that the line is now Minnesota -17.5 at most shops in the nation. FanDuel is the main outlier, as they're offering Minnesota -16.5
As for the game total, there has been a ton of cash flowing in on the under. The line opened at 48.5, and it has shifted all the way down to 45.5. That's definitely a huge move at any time, but especially during the dog days of summer when the game is still several weeks away.
Minnesota surprised lots of people in Big Ten country in 2024. After a disheartening opening week loss to UNC, the Gophers went on to notch impressive wins over USC, UCLA, and Wisconsin. They also came within a hair of upsetting Penn State (lost by 1) and Michigan (lost by 3).
The Gophers could have a hard time replacing QB Max Brosmer, who was a key reason why the offense looked much better last season. They'll also be breaking in two new wideouts and three new O-line guys from the transfer portal. Look for Minny to lean heavily on its running game behind RB Darius Taylor (986 rush yds, 10 rush TDs in 2024).
Minnesota's defense should be pretty solid once again, especially along the D-line and in the linebacking corps. I do have questions about the secondary, though, as three of their projected starters will be underclassmen.
Buffalo ended its 2024 campaign with a bang. The Bulls won five games in a row, the latter of which being a victory over Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl. They finished up at 9-4 and went an impressive 6-2 in MAC games.
Though the Bulls will have to break in a new QB, Pete Lembo did a fabulous job by bringing in Ta'Quan Roberson, a dynamic guy who had a nice season for UConn back in 2023 (2,075 passing yards, 12 TDs). Roberson didn't get much playing time last year at Kansas State, but he's never been short on ability.
No one talks much about Buffalo RB Al-Jay Henderson because he plays in the MAC, but this kid is one of the most talented runners in the country. He ran for over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs a season ago, and he has the potential to give Minnesota some headaches in this one.
With a game total so low (45.5), I like the Bulls plus the points in this matchup. Minnesota will have a clear talent advantage, but their QB situation is shaky at best. It wouldn't surprise me if PJ Fleck decides to play this game very conservatively and just runs the ball and kills the clock.
On the flip side, I think Buffalo can make their own hay on the ground with Henderson doing some damage. Also, don't forget about the rushing ability of QB Roberson. This kid can pull it down and run when he gets pressured, so that's an added bonus for the Bulls.
Minnesota will probably pull away late in the second half, but I could see this one getting pretty sweaty for Golden Gopher fans. Give me the points with this MAC darling team.
Buffalo was 8-5 ATS last season overall.
Buffalo was 3-2 ATS in nonconference games last year.
Prediction: Minnesota 27- Buffalo 17