The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in a high-stakes College Football Playoff matchup tonight at Ohio Stadium. With the bookmakers favoring Ohio State by a hefty 7.5 points, this clash between two 10-2 college football powerhouses is undoubtedly going to deliver some fireworks.
So, which team will move onto round 2 of the CFB Playoffs to take on Oregon, and which will hang up their cleats for the season? We’ve got the best bet and prediction for this playoff showdown.
Ohio State opens as a solid -7.5 favorite. We think that might be a bit sharp given that Tennessee is a pretty solid team, but it’s what we have to work with. More on that later.
With the total points set at 46.5, the bookmakers are already calling this a fairly high-scoring game. Both come into tonight with high-powered offenses, so we can agree on that mark.
The Buckeyes, ranked 4th in the Big Ten, are hosting Tennessee, the SEC's second-best team. Now it’s a bit easier to see why we think the odds are missing this one on the spread. Tennessee’s moneyline sits at +240, while Ohio State’s is -300, showing that the sportsbooks have some decent confidence in the home team.
The Buckeyes are coming off a narrow 13-10 loss to their biggest rival, Michigan. However, before that, OSU dominated Indiana, Northwestern, and Purdue with nothing less than convincing wins.
Tennessee, on the other hand, has shown quite a bit of resilience. They bounced back from a 31-17 loss to Georgia (who doesn’t lose to Georgia?) to win 3 straight games which included a shutout against UTEP.
Now, for the nitty gritty.
Ohio State Buckeyes, led by QB Will Howard, have one of the most efficient passing attacks in the game. Howard has thrown for 2,860 yards and 27 touchdowns this season putting him near the top of all NCAAF quarterbacks.
A great QB needs some great hands downfield. That’s where wideout Jeremiah Smith comes in. He’s a game-changer for this Ohio State offense with 934 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
However, their rushing offense has been somewhat of a weakness that Tennessee might be able to exploit. They rank 96th nationally with just 169.2 yards per game.
Defensively, Ohio State is fairly strong. They’ve allowed only 131 points all season which ranks them 47th in the nation. Their pass defense, in particular, has been key to keeping points off the board.
As for the Tennessee Volunteers, they’re fronted by Quarterback Nico Iamaleava who has had an impressive season with 2,512 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. That’s a solid ratio at this level.
Running back Dylan Sampson has been the Volunteers’ most dominant workhorse. He’s racked up 1,485 rushing yards and 22 TDs on the season. That’s good enough to get Tennessee’s rushing attack ranked 13th in the nation which gives them a huge edge on the ground.
The Volunteers also score big. Averaging 447 points for the season (28th nationally), they continue to drive the ball and make big plays that light up the scoreboard. However, their defense has been slightly shakier, giving up 167 points, ranking 51st nationally.
This game is going to be wild, but we think it really boils down to 3 key areas—
Ohio State's Passing Game vs Tennessee's Defense. Tennessee ranks 98th in passing yards allowed. This might just spell trouble against the Will Howard and Jeremiah Smith connection. If Howard can find his rhythm early, and he usually does, the Buckeyes could dominate through the air and keep the Vols on their heels.
Tennessee’s Ground Game vs Ohio State's Rushing Defense. With Dylan Sampson leading a nearly unstoppable rushing attack, Tennessee will aim to pick up yards and points against Ohio State’s average run defense. If the Volunteers control the clock like they have all season, they’ll keep the Buckeyes’ offense on the sideline watching the game.
Turnovers. Both quarterbacks have done pretty well limiting mistakes. However, Tennessee may need to force a turnover or 2 to swing the game their way. Ohio State thrives on capitalizing on opponents’ errors, but Tennessee has tightened up their game over the past few weeks. Whoever wins the turnovers will win the game.
This matchup will hinge on whether Tennessee can establish the run against Ohio State’s stout defense. That’s easier said than done, but you get the idea.
While the Volunteers' rushing attack is a heavy hitter, Ohio State’s balanced offense and strong defense give them a slight edge in this first-round game — especially at home.
The Buckeyes have shown the ability to limit explosive plays and make big tackles. This effort will be crucial against Tennessee’s dynamic ground game. We’re expecting Will Howard to lean on Jeremiah Smith in the passing game, while the defense contains Sampson just enough to secure the win and move on with their game against Oregon.
Best Bet: Ohio State -7.5
BettorsInsider Prediction: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 17