The College Football Playoff picture is set and the first-ever 12-team CFB playoff bracket is just days away from kicking off. There are 12 teams in the hunt for the national championship, but they all know it won’t be an easy path.
With matchups locked in for the first round and odds released, it’s time to break down each team’s chances of winning it all in this historic bracket.
These teams aren’t in order of their playoff positioning; instead, these are broken down as to how the bookmakers think the playoffs will play out.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +350
The Ducks are flying high at 13-0 and sitting atop the odds chart at +350. We’re not surprised.
Led by their explosive offense and Dillon Gabriel, Oregon ranks 19th in total yards per game and 73rd in points against, which just goes to show their balance on both sides of the ball.
The defense isn’t exactly elite, but it gets the job done. The team’s ability to put up points is what makes them a dangerous threat to anyone they face.
With the No. 1 seed in the CFP and a fairly manageable path to the final, Oregon has the clearest shot at glory and one of the easiest bets to make.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +360
Texas boasts the second-best odds at +360 and their decent 11-2 record.
The Longhorns have been steady all season, despite some injuries here and there. They’re particularly strong through the air with a passing attack ranked 22nd nationally. When you have Quinn Ewers under center, it’s easy to get there.
Their defense ranks a solid 49th in points against, but we’re thinking they’ll need to shore up their rushing defense to avoid an upset — depending on who they go up against.
Texas’ potential showdown with Oregon in the later rounds could be the ultimate test. Georgia has proven they’ve got their number, but it’s been close with them.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +500
At +500, Georgia isn’t the outright favorite, but they’re not too far off and they’re no stranger to playoff success.
Their defense, however, hasn’t been as dominant as they’d like this season. It ranks 107th in points allowed, which could use some improvement.
Offensively, the Bulldogs are led by their 21st-ranked passing attack with the Carson Beck and Arian Smith connection, and their championship pedigree makes them a team to fear.
With the No. 2 seed, they’ll face a weaker opponent in the 2nd round, but can they outlast the rest?
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +500
Also at +500, the Buckeyes are bringing their elite and dominant offense to the table.
Ohio State ranks 60th in passing yards per game with 254, and while their rushing attack is below average (96th at 169 per game), their overall efficiency has them ranked 4th in the country.
Their defense is better than most playoff teams, ranking 47th in points allowed. They’ve been solid all season at stopping the rush and limiting explosive plays in the secondary.
If the Buckeyes’ offense clicks, which it’s looking like it could, they could be unstoppable.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +625
The Nittany Lions are sitting at +625 which is better than we thought they’d be.
With a well-balanced team that really excels on both sides of the ball, we figured they’d have good odds, but not this good.
Penn State ranks 20th in total yards per game with 448 and 64th in points allowed with 213, but their schedule hasn’t been as tough as some of the other teams in the CFP.
We’re thinking that their rushing attack, ranked 31st, could be key in grinding down opponents.
A matchup with SMU in the first round should provide momentum heading into the tougher games.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +800
Notre Dame’s odds (+800) just go to show they’re a dark horse in this playoff race.
The Irish boast the 15th-best rushing attack in the nation, which will unquestionably play a big role in their postseason success. Jeremiyah Love has been unstoppable with his 949 yards and 15 TDs on the season.
However, they’ll need to step up their passing game, led by Riley Leonard, if they want to go deep in the CFP.
Their first-round game against a manageable Indiana gives them a chance to get a win, head to the second round, and build some confidence.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +3000
Tennessee is a longshot at +3000 odds, but it’s their 13th-ranked rushing attack that makes them a bit more intriguing.
The Volunteers rank 13th in total yards per game but only 287th in points for. That means they’re explosive, they can get down field, but they’re obviously having troubles finishing the drive with a TD. They’re going to have to find the end zone a few more times if they want to remain competitive.
Sitting at 51st in points allowed with 167 on the season makes them vulnerable in shootouts — and there’s no way they can avoid at least one of those in the CFP.
Their first matchup against Ohio State will be a true test of their ability to hang with the big boys.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +4000
The Hoosiers surprised many by reaching the playoffs with an 11-1 record, but the bookmakers are giving them an underdog status with their +4000 odds.
Indiana’s offense, led by Kurtis Rourke and his 40th-best passing game, has been effective — but it’s their defense (53rd in points against) that leaves room for concern.
If they upset Notre Dame in the first round, watch out. This team could get gritty and find ways to win, even against some of the bigger football programs in the bracket.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +5000
The Mustangs are a true dark horse at +5000. Honestly, we’re surprised the oddsmakers gave them that. They lost to Clemson in the ACC championship and the only other time they played a ranked team (BYU in week 3), they lost.
Sure, their offense, ranked 28th in total yards per game, could be a problem for anyone, but keep in mind who they were playing.
Their defense, on the other hand, ranked 115th in points allowed, will undoubtedly not hold up against better teams like Boise State — if they topple Penn State.
They’ll need to shock Penn State in the opening round to make any real noise. We’re thinking PSU will make quick work of SMU.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +6600
Arizona State’s odds (+6600) tell us that the bookmakers have little faith in their title hopes, but we think their 39th-ranked rushing attack could give them a shot of at least hanging with either Clemson or Texas in the second round.
With a strong offensive output (55th in total yards per game), they could surprise some teams. Their defense, sitting at 121st in points allowed, is easily their biggest liability.
Texas will knock off Clemson and then take on Arizona State in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on New Years Day and then Arizona will head home after that.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +6600
Boise State enters the playoffs at +6600, which doesn’t feel right given how much hype they’ve received.
While they’re near the bottom of the odds list, they do have one major strength — their rushing attack ranks 7th in the country.
Their defense, ranked 138th in points allowed, is undeniably their Achilles’ heel. They’ll need to tighten it up if they’re going to beat either SMU or Penn State in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl.
We’re thinking If they can control the clock and lean on their rushing game, they might pull off a shocker and move onto the Capital One Orange Bowl.
Odds to Win the NCAAF Championship: +6600
Clemson rounds out the playoff field at +6600. Some argue they don’t deserve a spot in the CFP bracket with their 10-3 record, but then again, here we are.
The Tigers do have a solid passing game, led by Cade Klubnik, and rank 17th in total yards per game.
Their defense, however, ranks 144th in points allowed with 290 on the season, which will be their biggest challenge.
Facing a stout Texas in the first round, they’ll need their best performance of the year to advance. We don’t see it panning out that way.
The playoff is loaded with tons of talent and extremely contrasting styles. That’s what makes it interesting and fun to watch.
From Oregon’s high-powered offense to Boise State’s elite rushing attack, we’re going to see some of the best college football over the next few weeks.
Of course, the favorites like Oregon and Texas are expected to shine but don’t count out underdogs like Tennessee or Indiana to shake things up.
If recent years have taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen in the postseason.