The Atlanta Braves are heading to Citi Field tonight for a matchup with the New York Mets that feels like 2 teams heading in opposite directions on the season. The Braves, well out of the playoff race and 17 games behind in the National League East, are just trying to play spoiler at this point. This is a huge surprise given that they were heavily favored coming into the season. The Mets, on the other hand, are sitting 5 games back of the division lead and are trying to stay afloat in a crowded Wild Card picture. Despite their slump over the last couple of weeks, we’re still feeling pretty good about the Mets.
New York will hand the ball to Kodai Senga, who has quietly put together a strong second MLB season. Atlanta comes into tonight with Bryce Elder, who continues to struggle quite a bit in his sophomore campaign. These 2 teams have split the first 2 games of the series, but with Senga on the mound and the Mets needing this one more than the Braves, the edge leans strongly toward the home team.
The first pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM tonight from Citi Field in New York. The Mets come into this one heavily favored on the moneyline at -199, while the Braves are listed at a stingy +162. The total for the game sits at 8.5 runs, with the under at -102 and the over slightly favored at -119. The Mets are also slight favorites on the run line, with -1.5 paying out at +108, which looks much better than -119, but we’ll get there shortly.
On the mound, Kodai Senga has been a rock for the Mets' rotation. He owns a 7-4 record with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 94 innings of work. He’s struck out 88 batters and allowed just 9 home runs over that span as well. While Senga hasn’t been going deep into games recently — just a total of 8.1 innings across his last 2 starts — he’s limited damage well, giving up only 2 earned runs in August altogether. It just goes to show that just because you don’t go deep, it doesn’t mean you can’t get the job done.
Bryce Elder, meanwhile, continues to be a problem for Atlanta. He enters with a 4-9 record and a bloated 6.12 ERA. His WHIP is a rough 1.56 across 100 innings pitched, and he’s already allowed 18 home runs, among the worst in the league for starting pitchers. Over his last 2 starts, he has allowed 7 earned runs in 12.2 innings, including a loss to Miami where he gave up 5 earned runs and 3 walks. His command hasn’t been that sharp, and his strikeout totals are mediocre at best, with just 81 strikeouts on the year.
If we’re looking at only the SPs on the bump for this game, the clear winner is the Mets. But we still need to dig deeper than that.
Atlanta may be on a bit of a hot streak, winning 4 of its last 5 games, but 3 of those wins came against the struggling Marlins. In their last outing, the Braves exploded for 11 runs on the Mets, but that kind of offensive output has been the exception, not the rule. If they can show some consistency, that number might mean something else.
Overall, Atlanta is hitting .242 as a team, which ranks 20th in the MLB. They’ve scored 985 runs and hit 135 home runs. Sure, they’ve got power in the middle of the order, with Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna leading the charge, but the lineup is pretty dull beyond them. Olson is batting .262 with 19 home runs and 71 RBIs, while Ozuna has hit 20 homers and driven in 59 runs with a .240 AVG.
The issue for Atlanta has been run prevention. Their team ERA sits at a dismal 4.31, and they’ve allowed 243 walks while only striking out 1052 batters. Elder is a big part of those struggles, and their bullpen has also been shaky in close games.
The Mets are batting .241 on the year, nearly identical to Atlanta, but they’ve done it with a bit more power as they’ve hit 154 home runs and driven in more runs, scoring 532 times. Juan Soto has been a force, as expected, belting 29 homers with a .251 AVG and 69 RBIs. Pete Alonso has been equally effective, leading the team with a .272 AVG, 28 dingers, and 98 RBIs. His .530 SLG leads all qualified Mets hitters, and he’s been particularly dangerous at Citi Field.
Pitching-wise, the Mets are the much more balanced team. Their staff ERA is 3.77, which ranks in the top 10 in baseball. They’ve issued fewer walks, with just 243 on the season, and have allowed fewer home runs compared to the Braves. Senga and the bullpen behind him give them a real advantage in this one, especially if the offense jumps out early and forces Atlanta to go to the pen.
It’s simple — New York has the better pitcher, the more consistent bullpen, and a lineup that matches up well against a struggling starter. This is all despite the streaks each team has been on lately.
Bryce Elder has been getting hit hard all season, and the Mets have several hitters capable of punishing mistakes. Alonso and Soto both profile pretty well against Elder, who’s given up 18 long balls and struggles to put away hitters once he falls behind in the count.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Mets 6, Braves 3
Best Bet: Mets -1.5 on the Run Line at +108
Even though the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5, 3 of those were one-run games. The talent is there, and they’ve proven they can score when needed. At home, with a chance to secure a series win and stay in the playoff mix, we totally expect the Mets to come out focused.
New York is 29-29-3 to the over this season, and while 8.5 runs is a fair total, we’re steering away from that and trusting the more complete team. The Mets have won consistently when Senga is on the bump, and Elder has not shown he can be trusted against good lineups. With New York’s bats finally heating up again and Elder’s track record, the run line is worth the squeeze.