We’ve got a good mix of hot bats and a steady arm on today’s MLB slate. A couple of hitters are riding streaks you simply cannot ignore, while one starter is in a great spot to shut things down. These props blend higher-probability plays with one big-value swing, giving us a fair mix of safe bets and a potential jackpot.
To nobody’s surprise, Cal Raleigh is seeing beach balls at the plate right now. He’s gone deep in 3 straight games, all against the Rays, and his season numbers back up why he’s one of the league’s most dangerous hitters. Raleigh leads all of Major League Baseball with 45 home runs and 98 RBI, putting up a .947 OPS that ranks 4th in the league.
The switch-hitting catcher isn’t just hitting for power — he’s making quality contact almost every time he steps into the box. His slugging percentage sits over .590, and he’s been especially dangerous when pitchers try to challenge him up in the zone. In his last series, he was locked in, posting a hit in every game and showing the ability to go deep to all fields. Up against Dean Kremer for the O’s, who’s given up 18 dingers so far this year, we think Raleigh will knock another one.
With a hot streak like this, you don’t overthink it. Power hitters can be streaky, but Raleigh’s current form, combined with his season-long production, makes +140 a decent number. If he gets a mistake pitch today, which he very well could, there’s a strong chance he leaves the yard for the 4th straight game.
Jose Ramirez is one of baseball’s most consistent contact hitters, and while he hasn’t been hitting a ton of home runs lately, he’s finding the basepaths with regularity. He’s recorded at least one single in each of the Guardians’ last 5 home games, which highlights this as a reliable pattern for this prop.
Ramirez is batting .289 on the season with a .365 OBP, and his swing is built for line drives into the gaps or through the infield. He’s also a tough strikeout, meaning he puts a lot of balls in play. Even in August, when his overall numbers have dipped a bit, he’s still been able to rack up hits thanks to his quick bat and excellent plate coverage. Going up against Janson Junk, who consistently gives up 5+ hits per game, we have no doubt that Ramirez will notch a hit.
This play isn’t about hoping for extra-base power — it’s about trusting a hitter with elite bat-to-ball skills in what looks like a favorable situation. With a pitching matchup that isn’t likely to overpower him, the odds are strong that Ramirez will extend his singles streak and cash this prop again.
This is our value swing of the day, and it comes with a history that’s hard to ignore. Ryan McMahon has hit a home run in 4 of his last 6 games against the Twins. That’s not just luck — it’s a sign that he sees the ball well against Minnesota’s pitching. Most of the time, we’d pass on something like this, but with this price and how he’s doing against the Twins — who now have a weakened staff after the deadline — he should have no problem making this happen.
McMahon’s season numbers aren’t elite as he’s just at a .221 AVG, 16 homers, and a .709 OPS, but he’s a streaky power hitter who can punish mistakes when he’s on. The Twins have given him pitches to handle in the past, and given his track record in this matchup, +500 is too big a price to pass up.
While this isn’t as safe as the Raleigh or Ramirez plays, the potential payout is huge, and that’s what we’re after with this MLB prop bet. If you’re looking for a long shot with legitimate historical backing, McMahon’s home run prop fits the bill.
Ranger Suarez has quietly been one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball this season. Across his 22 starts, he’s posted a 2.94 ERA and held opponents to 2 earned runs or fewer in 15 games. While his most recent outing against Baltimore was a rare stumble where he had 5 ER in 6.1 innings, his body of work shows he bounces back quickly. Recently, he allowed 6 ER against the Angels and came back in his next outing against the dominant Yankees and only picked up 1 ER over 108 pitches. That just goes to show that he can shake it off like nothing happened.
At home, Suarez has been even tougher, using excellent command and ground-ball tendencies to limit damage. He’s not a strikeout-heavy pitcher, of course, but he works efficiently and rarely gives up big innings. His WHIP of 1.15 shows how well he keeps traffic off the bases.
The matchup here is favorable, as the Reds' lineup has struggled against LHPs this season, posting just a .220 AVG. At -140, the under on 2.5 earned runs is backed by both his season-long consistency and the Reds’ weakness. Even if he gives up a couple of early baserunners, Suarez has the pitch mix to induce double plays and get out of trouble when he needs it the most.
Today’s prop picks balance both reliability and upside. Cal Raleigh is on an absolute tear and has the power to make +140 look like a steal. Jose Ramirez’s singles streak gives us a high-probability hit prop at near-even money. Ryan McMahon offers big value at +500 with his strong history against the Twins, even if he’s not a household name when it comes to HRs, and Ranger Suarez’s consistency makes his earned runs under a trustworthy play.
If all 4 trends hold, this set of props has the potential for both steady returns and a big payday. Parlaying these 4 props with a simple $5 bet could net you over $230. That’s a quick way to load up the bankroll. The combination of current form, season-long stats, and matchup history makes this card one worth riding.