Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! Monday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-1 to run our record to 116-97 on player props this season. The Brewers continued their meteoric rise as the hottest team in Major League Baseball, as they easily cashed our first five team total over the Pirates.
Milwaukee has an uncanny ability to play small ball, which is kind of refreshing in today's home run obsessed version of baseball. Our other winner was on Will Warren, who continues to be an underrated commodity for the New York Yankees. Warren gave up a couple of solo homers to the Twins, but he still cashed our under 2.5 earned runs prop.
Our lone loser was on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was lit up like a Christmas tree by the Angels. It's time to build on yesterday's positive mojo. Let's keep going strong with our top player prop and best bet for Tuesday, August 12. Best of luck, my friends.
SEA at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT
You just have to admire the way the Seattle Mariners decided to really go for it at the trade deadline a couple of weeks ago. They brought in Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, and those two bats are already starting to pay some nice dividends. The M's now sit just one game back of the Houston Astros for first place in the American League West.
Dean Kremer has been pretty good at home this season, but I think he'll give up more than a few runs against this revamped Seattle lineup. The Mariners rank 7th in both WRC+ against righties and WRC+ over the last two weeks. Even better than that, Seattle ranks 2nd in WRC+ in road games this year.
Though Kremer's stuff isn't all that bad, he's given up 7 dingers to this Mariners squad in only 81 batters faced. That's one of those glaring stats that just make you want to bet an Over. The wind will also be blowing directly out to left field at over 7 miles an hour. Let's get it!
Side Note: Kremer's earned runs line in the player props market is 2.5, but the Over is juiced in the -145 to -165 range. This means that there's quite a bit of value in this -120 number that we found at DK.
PHI at CIN - 6:40 PM EDT
Suarez has burned me a couple of times over the last few weeks, but I still think he's one of the best lefties in the National League. The young southpaw draws a nice matchup tonight on the road against the Reds.
Cincy ranks an abysmal 27th in WRC+ against left-handers this season and over the last two weeks, so Suarez should be able to pitch a gem of a game. Suarez has fared quite well against the Reds in his career, as he's allowed a batting average of just .182 against them.
Need some more metrics to pull the trigger on this under? Suarez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 17 starts this season. He's also been a road warrior, as the Under is 7-1 against this line in Suarez's 8 starts on the highway. Let's get this Under!