We’ve got a full slate of games tonight, and that means there’s no shortage of excellent MLB player prop bets to load onto your bet slip. We dug through the stats and matchups to find the best ones on the board, and here are the 4 we’ve come up with.
We’re riding the hot hand here, even though anytime homerun bets are a bit risky — however, we like the odds that go with this one. Kerry Carpenter has quietly been one of the most profitable home run props over the past few weeks, especially in this exact setup. He’s hit a homer in each of his last 4 home games when playing on zero rest — exactly the situation he’s in tonight after last night’s 6-3 win.
The matchup is favorable, too. He faces Zebby Matthews, a rookie who's been getting shelled to the tune of a 5.67 ERA. Matthews has given up 13 taters in just 56.2 innings pitched, and we think Carp is going to add another one to his tally in tonight’s game.
With +390 odds, this is a pure value swing even if you tend to stay away from HR props. Given Carpenter’s trend and power upside at home, there’s enough here to take the shot and walk away with a nice chunk of change.
In tonight’s Giants vs. Pirates matchup, Heliot Ramos of the Giants offers a great run-scoring prop at plus money. He’s quietly been a model of consistency when the Giants are on the road, especially against weak teams. Last night, he notched a run, and on Sunday afternoon, he put up 2. He’s on fire right now, and we’re looking to take advantage of that.
Ramos has scored in each of the Giants’ last 6 road games against teams with a losing record — and the Pirates fit that description. They’ve allowed the 5th-most runs in the National League and just gave up 17 runs in a game against the Rockies last weekend. The Rockies!
Ramos has been batting in key run-producing spots and is surrounded by hitters who are heating up, like Matt Chapman and Willy Adames. If he gets on base even once, his chances of cashing this prop look great. This is especially true against Johan Oviedo, who’s making his 2nd start of the season after pitching just 1 inning and giving up 2 runs.
This one jumps off the board for both his stats and the odds the bookmakers are letting this one go for. Christian Walker of the Astros has quietly crushed in interleague road matchups. He’s recorded at least one RBI in 7 of the Astros’ last 8 road games against NL opponents, and tonight presents another juicy shot to keep it going.
The Astros' lineup gives Walker opportunities, which is why he has 6 RBIs over the last 6 games altogether. He’s in a great spot in the lineup right behind Altube and Correa, both of whom consistently get on base and typically find themselves in a scoring position by the time Walker takes the batter’s box.
At +155, you’re getting strong value for a guy who's been reliable in his role in the #5 spot on the lineup. The trends and matchups both point toward another productive night at the plate, and he just might be able to pull over 2+ RBIs while he’s at it.
Taijuan Walker has quietly owned the Baltimore Orioles. He’s recorded 4+ strikeouts in each of his last 7 appearances against them, and the current version of Baltimore’s lineup isn’t built to change that — especially after the trade deadline deals.
The Orioles are bottom-5 in the American League in strikeout rate, and they’ve been especially bad against RHPs lately. Their offense has scored just 15 runs over their last 5 games, and they’re not making opposing pitchers work too hard.
With the Phillies trending up and Walker entering on solid form, he should have no problem carving through this lineup for at least 5 innings — which is easily enough to cash this. Sure, he’s not a strikeout monster like Wheeler or Skubal, but he gets the job done and should have no problem clearing at least 4 at the plate.
This is a slate where trends meet matchups, and we’re not betting blindly. Each of these prop picks comes with strong support from both recent data and favorable game situations. We’re loving Kerry Carpenter, who is a red-hot power bat in a prime matchup, Heliot Ramos, who is cashing runs consistently in the exact spot he’s in, Christian Walker, who brings value in a run-producing role, and Taijuan Walker, who has history and current form on his side with a soft matchup.
It doesn’t get much better than these 4 MLB prop bets for tonight’s slate.
All of these props complement each other, too. We’re banking on offensive sparks from Detroit and San Francisco while trusting a Philly starter to handle business against a struggling Baltimore offense.
Let’s stack some wins and cash these bet slips.