Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! Monday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-1 to run our record to 110-90 on player props this season. Max Fried made us sweat with a bad inning early on against Texas, but he rebounded nicely to cash our Over Ks ticket.
Our other winner on Erick Fedde Over 2.5 earned runs was a nice cash at plus money. It's time to build on that positive mojo. Let's keep going strong with 3 player props for Tuesday, August 5. Best of luck, my friends.
KC at BOS - 7:10 PM EDT
I know the Royals have finally been showing some signs of life on offense, but I'll take my chances with a true ace like Garrett Crochet. The fiery young lefty has a median earned run number of just 1 this season. The under is 13-9 this season in Crochet's 22 starts.
Even with Kansas City's recent surge, their lineup ranks just 24th in WRC+ against southpaws this season. I could see them having a hard time putting together any type of offensive rally against Crochet.
The former University of Tennessee star has one of the best K-rates in baseball, mainly thanks to a 96-mph fastball and a nasty cutter. I also like that Crochet has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his 10 home starts this year. Give me the Under!
KC at BOS - 7:10 PM EDT
This Red Sox offense has looked so much better since getting rid of Rafael Devers. It seemed like the young slugger had become kind of a cancer in the clubhouse and was ruining team morale. Boston ranks 4th in WRC+ over the last 30 days, and they're making a legitimate push for a playoff berth.
We don't have a ton of data on Bergert, who came over from San Diego at the trade deadline last week. Bergert has a decent fastball that he throws 46% of the time, but the problem is that Boston ranks 2nd in baseball against that pitch. His secondary pitch is a slider, and the Red Sox rank a respectable 4th against that offering.
Lastly, this Red Sox offense is a whole different beast when playing at home. Boston ranks 10th in WRC+ when playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. This will be Bergert's first trip to these hallowed grounds, and he could be in for a rude awakening. Give me the Over!
NYY at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
Will Warren has made me some good coin in the strikeouts market this season. The young righty does an excellent job of hitting his spots with his fastball, and he gets lots of extension. The 26-year-old's walk rate scares me a tad, but I think he'll do just fine tonight on the road.
Warren has stayed under this total in 15 of his 23 starts this season. He's also been in great current form, as he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in 4 out of his last 5 outings. He didn't allow a single run to this Rangers lineup back on May 20th, and I could see him channeling those good vibes again tonight.
Texas is starting to come to life, but they haven't fared well against righties this year. The Rangers rank just 26th in WRC+ overall against right-handers on the season. They've found a little more offense lately, but I still trust Warren to turn in a decent performance tonight on the highway.