The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Arizona for the 1st of a 4-game set against the Diamondbacks tonight. The first pitch is just hours away and both teams come in with very different momentum. The Dodgers are starting to separate themselves atop the NL West, well, the NL in general, while the Diamondbacks are trying to stop the bleeding after a rough home stretch where they lost a series to the Mets.
This game features a heavyweight pitching matchup — at least on one side of the field.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto continues to prove he’s the ace the Dodgers paid for and he’s shaping up to be one of the top starters in the MLB. Through 7 starts, he's a mediocre 4-2 but has a dominant 0.90 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Opponents can’t seem to figure him out as they are hitting just .182 against him. Yamamoto dominated the Braves in his last outing with 6 innings of one-hit baseball. Also in that game, he struck out 7 and walked none. That outing dropped his ERA below 1.00 for the year, which is bordering on historic if he can keep that up. Of course, it’s early in the season, but he’s easily a Cy Young contender.
As for Arizona, Brandon Pfaadt will get the ball. He’s 5-2 with a 3.79 ERA, but his last start against the Phillies exposed some issues. Pfaadt gave up 6 earned runs on 9 hits over just 4.2 innings. Despite this dismal performance, he’s generally done a good job avoiding walks as he only gave 7 free passes over 40.1 innings, but he’s been giving up loud contact — already surrendering 7 dingers this year. That’s not ideal when you're facing a Dodgers lineup that punishes mistakes and has some of the best bats in the league.
Bookmakers have the Dodgers as a clear road favorite behind Yamamoto, and that doesn’t surprise us at all. The run line is sitting at -1.5 for the Dodgers with a slight plus price of +105, and the moneyline has L.A. at -155. That means there's confidence in the Dodgers not just to win, but potentially by multiple runs.
The total is set at 8.5, and interestingly enough, each of the last 7 matchups between these teams has gone over that number. Bettors seem to think there’s still room for a few runs, even with Yamamoto starting. That’s likely due to how hot the Dodgers’ bats are, and Arizona's shaky bullpen.
This already feels like the Dodgers are going to dominate this game, but the -155 might not be a good look for many bettors. That run line seems a bit better in terms of payout.
Let’s start with the obvious — Los Angeles is undoubtedly the more complete team. They're 2nd in the league in AVG at .259, HRs at 59, and runs per game at 5.5. They’ve also got the second-most Ks by a pitching staff and top-10 metrics in OBA and ERA. They’ve been crushing left and right and very few teams have been able to slow them down.
Teoscar Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani continue to carry the offense, as expected. Hernandez has a team-high 34 RBI with 9 HRs and is slugging .600 SLG. Ohtani isn’t far behind him with 10 HRs and a .299 AVG. Add in some support from guys like Will Smith — who has a hit in 9 straight appearances at Chase Field — and this lineup is relentless from top to bottom.
Arizona, though, has some pieces working in their favor — Corbin Carroll has 11 homers, and Geraldo Perdomo is hitting .285 — but they simply don’t have the same firepower. They rank just 13th in batting average and 6th in runs, but against elite pitching, they’ve struggled to string any amount of hits together. That was obvious in their series against the Mets where they only walked away with 1 win and only 1 run in their final game.
And then there’s the pitching. Arizona’s team ERA of 4.47 ranks 25th in the MLB. Their bullpen has been inconsistent, and if Pfaadt struggles early, which if his last outing is any indicator he’ll wrap up quickly, things could spiral quickly. Contrast that with Yamamoto, who’s gone at least 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts and has allowed just one run total in his last 3 outings. On the mound, it’s completely one-sided.
In terms of betting trends, Los Angeles is 18-9 in night games this season, while Arizona is just 11-13 under the lights. This is also a prime spot for the Dodgers to extend their lead in the division and take control of the season series.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 3.
Best Bet: Take the Los Angeles Dodgers on the -1.5 run line at +105
The pitching mismatch is too big to ignore, and the Dodgers are red-hot. The moneyline is the safer bet, but at -155 and the trends, we’re backing the run line. Giving the DBacks even 3 is a stretch, but we didn’t want to completely disrespect their ballclub.