Happy Thursday, fellow sports investors! Hump Day was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-1 to run our record to 56-55 on the young season for a deficit of 9.55 units. Let's go on a run the rest of the month and get back on the positive side of the ledger.
The Phillies cashed our series ticket by kicking the crap out of the Rays 7-0. Jonathan Cannon continued to be a pitch-to-contact guy to cash our Under ticket against the Royals. Lastly, Jose Berrios struck out 9 Angels to cash out Over bet on him. Our lone loser was on Tyler Mahle's Over against Boston.
The K props have done well this season at 38-29 (+3.31), but everything else has brought down our record. Let's build on yesterday's performance with 3 more strikeout props for Thursday, May 8. Best of luck, my friends!
BAL at MIN - 1:10 PM EDT
Ober hasn't put up a high K-rate this season, but that's mainly because he's faced a lot of high-contact teams. The 6'9" righty has faced the Cards, Royals, Mets, and Guardians in 4 of his 7 starts. It's hard to rack up a lot of punchouts against squads like that.
Ober's long and lanky frame allows him to get lots of extension on all of his pitches. It makes his 91-mph fastball play more like 95 or 96. He also has one of the better changeups in the American League. That should serve him quite well against a Baltimore lineup that is striking out a ton lately.
The O's have the 2nd-highest K-rate in baseball over the last couple of weeks. Four of their hitters fan at least 23.8% of the time. Look for Ober to cruise for most of the afternoon on his way to at least 6 punch-outs.
PHI at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching at the Rays' replacement home has hurt Pepiot's numbers so far this season. Both his K-rate and his whiff rate are down considerably over 2024, so he makes for a good fade tonight against the red-hot Phillies lineup. Philadelphia hits the fastball incredibly well, and Pepiot throws that pitch almost 40% of the time.
I do like how well Pepiot changes speeds, but this Phillies lineup has been putting the ball in play at a high level against righties all year long. Philadelphia has the 2nd-lowest K-rate in MLB against right-handers, so Pepiot will have to rely more on getting ground balls in this outing.
Pepiot's median K number was 5 last season. That has to be adjusted down to 4.5 or even 3.5 with the way the Fightin' Phils are swinging the bats these days. Give me a sweaty Under!
TOR at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
Let's keep riding the LAA Fade Train until they make us stop. Bassitt's median number of Ks was 6 last season, and he draws a fantastic matchup against a very strikeout-prone Angels team. The veteran righty is off to a great start in 2025, and I don't see this Halos lineup doing much damage against him.
LAA has the 2nd-highest K-rate in baseball against righties, and they have the highest K-rate in MLB over the last two weeks. They could struggle in a mighty way tonight against Bassitt's assortment of 8 nasty pitches.
Just how good has Bassitt looked this season? His K-rate is back up to 25.7% (72nd percentile), and his chase rate is currently sitting at an astounding 33.1% (86th percentile). That should play well against an Angels squad that has 5 guys who fan at least 27% of the time. Take the Over!