After a blowout 10-4 win in Game 1 last night, the San Francisco Giants are in control heading into the 2nd matchup of this 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. With the series shifting tone quickly, Game 2 becomes a chance for the Giants to clinch the series early or for the Phillies to fight back before things spiral further.
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Tonight's game in Philadelphia features a big pitching matchup on paper, but how these SPs have been doing as of late shows 2 very different stories. Justin Verlander, the Giants’ veteran RHP, will go up against the Phillies’ sharp LHP Jesús Luzardo.
Verlander comes in tonight with a rough start to his 2025 season. He holds a dismal 6.92 ERA across his first 3 starts and has allowed 16 hits and 6 walks over just 13 innings. His age is really starting to show. Even though he fanned 9 in a win over Cincinnati, his command just hasn’t been crisp, and he’s struggled to keep traffic off the bases. That outing against the Reds, where he pitched 5.2 innings, looked like it was going to be a turning point, but he ended up giving up 5 earned runs.
Luzardo, on the other hand, has looked like a frontline ace that we’re all familiar with. Through 18 innings, he’s posted a 1.50 ERA and struck out 25 batters while walking only 5. That’s good for a WHIP of 1.00. Not too bad. He’s gone at least 6+ innings in his last 2 starts including a dominant 7-inning showing against the Dodgers where he didn’t give up a single run and whiffed 8. Even in a no-decision against the Braves, he held Atlanta to just one run across 6 frames. His ability to miss bats and limit damage has been a huge asset for a Phillies squad still finding consistency.
The names might seem a bit misleading as we were all prepared for a pitching duel, but with Verlander playing his worst ball in years, this feels like it’s going to be all Luzardo.
San Francisco is playing their best baseball so far. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and not slowing down, the Giants have hit their stride offensively. In their last 4 games alone, they’ve scored 28 runs, including the 10 they hung on the Phillies in Game 1. They’ve knocked around SPs and exposed flaws in bullpens, showing strong plate discipline and timely power.
Wilmer Flores has been one of the biggest driving forces of this offense with 6 HRs and 20 RBIs, and Jung Hoo Lee has been one of the most consistent hitters in the lineup, slashing an insane .322/.394/.644. Lee’s combination of gap power and speed is keeping pressure on pitchers, and he’s done damage against both RHPs and LHPs. He’s doing it all.
The team’s patience has made them tough outs all the way through the lineup. This team has depth — even their bottom third has chipped in, which is another reason they’ve climbed to 5-2 in night games this year. Patrick Bailey and Tyler Fitzgerald have been doing their part and getting on the bases. Their bullpen has also tightened up a bit, helping preserve late leads that earlier in the season might have otherwise slipped away.
Philadelphia has now lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 games. They’re better than this but haven’t looked sharp since their series win over the Dodgers, and the inconsistency on offense has been a big issue. Aside from Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, who have combined for 9 dingers and a .552 slugging percentage, the Phillies’ lineup hasn’t produced consistently.
They rank below league average in OBP and SLG, and it’s been even worse lately. In their last 5 games, they’ve averaged just 2 runs per game, and they’ve been outscored 24-10 in that span. Their bullpen was also rocked for 4 runs in Game 1, raising questions about whether their middle relief can hold things down if Luzardo doesn’t go deep again.
Defensively, the Phillies haven’t really helped themselves either. Miscues in the field have extended innings and added unnecessary pressure on pitchers to close out innings. Against a team like San Francisco that puts the ball in play, those mistakes can’t happen.
On paper, the pitching edge undeniably belongs to Philadelphia, but this game feels more like a toss-up than the numbers suggest. The Giants are simply playing all-around better baseball right now — both at the plate and on the mound. Even though Verlander has been up and down, he still knows how to pitch in big moments and keep the game moving. He’s due for an explosive game.
San Francisco’s offense is too hot to ignore as well. Unless Luzardo throws another gem of a game, it’s hard to see how the Phillies can keep up with the Giants. Until Philly shows more consistency at the plate and tighter work out of the BP, it’s tough to back them — even at home.
BettorInsider’s Prediction: Giants 5, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Take the San Francisco Giants moneyline at +140
Sitting at +140, the value is there with how well they’re swinging it right now, and their bullpen is performing better than Philly’s. Under normal circumstances, we wouldn’t bet against Luzardo, but there’s more baseball in this game beyond just the SPs going head-to-head.
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