Happy Tuesday, sports betting amigos! Monday was a so-so day for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 1-1, running our record to 27-26 on the young season for a deficit of 3.19 units. However, we did pick up an easy win on the Tigers to bring us a step closer to winning our series bet on them.
I watched Seth Lugo last night, and it was frustrating, to say the least. He got a ton of two-strike counts on the Yankee hitters but kept pitching to contact instead of going for strikeouts. He finished with only 4 Ks to ruin our Over 5.5 ticket on him.
Thankfully, Jameson Taillon got us a break-even night by staying under his 4.5 strikeout total against San Diego. The Pads continue to put the ball in play at a high rate against both righties and lefties.
Anyway, enough rambling, let's get into today's plays. I found 3 player props for Tax Day that I'm quite fond of. Best of luck, folks!
AZ at MIA - 6:40 PM EDT
Kelly has gotten off to a rocky start, at least from a strikeout standpoint, so this one's kind of scary. However, we have to take into context who Kelly has pitched against so far. He's faced the Yankees (who knocked him around) and two teams that don't fan very often (the Cubs and the Orioles).
This is a great opportunity to "buy the dip" on Kelly against a terrible Marlins lineup. Miami has the 2nd highest K-rate in baseball against righties. They've also never faced Kelly, which I think works in our favor.
Kelly's median K number was 5 last year, but I bumped that to 5.5 in my number because of Miami's high K-rate. The Fish have 5 guys in their lineup with K-rates of 25% or higher. Give me a terrifying Over to start things off.
ATL at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT
Gausman started off slow, but he quickly found his footing last week against the Red Sox. The veteran righty fanned 10 BoSox hitters through 8 innings of 4-hit ball. His splitter was breaking off the table, which is a bad sign for Atlanta's hitters tonight in the Rogers Center.
I love that Gausman's career K-rate against this Braves roster is 27.3%. I also love that he typically pitches at least 6 innings per start. Gausman has also shown pinpoint accuracy so far this season, as his walk rate is just 4.4%.
This matchup against Atlanta is ideal for an Over for Gausman. The Braves have the 3rd highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties. Five Atlanta hitters have K-rates of over 26%, so let's slam the Over.
NYM at MIN - 7:40 PM EDT
I don't understand how a 6'9" guy like Ober doesn't generate more swings and misses. I guess it's because even with all that extension, he still only hits 92 mph or so with his fastball. Ober is also in poor form, as his expected batting average allowed is .300 so far this season.
The Mets have the 6th-lowest strikeout rate against righties in MLB. Six New York hitters have K-rates below 19.5%, and even sluggers like Juan Soto and Pete Alonso aren't chasing many bad pitches out of the zone.
Ober doesn't have a large sample size against this roster, but his K-rate against them is just 13.3%. Give me an Under here since I thought this line would be posted at 4.5 instead of 5.5. Let's ride!