There’s a huge NL East showdown tonight as the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park. With the first pitch set for 6:15 PM, there’s still plenty of time to lock in your bets on this big game.
The series is tied at a game a piece and this rubber match is a great chance to break down the odds, analyze the matchup, and lock in your bet.
The odds for this game tell us that the bookmakers feel this will be a tight contest.
The Phillies are slight underdogs on the moneyline at +105, while the Braves are the favorites at -125. This might seem a bit off given the Phillies are currently 8-3 and the Braves are 2-9, but there’s more to this story once you peel back some layers.
The run line has the Phillies at +1.5 with -198 odds, and the Braves at -1.5 with +164. The over/under for total runs is set at 7, with the over at -125 and the under at -105. The books are, of course, expecting a close game, but they’re giving a slight edge to the Braves on their home turf.
Both of these teams were expected to be smoking hot coming into the season, but they’re apparently on many different trajectories.
The Phillies are 8-3 this season, sitting atop the NL East with a solid .727 winning percentage and not looking back. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 games, including a 4-3 win over the Braves in Game 2 of this series just last night.
Their offense has been clicking, averaging a decent 4.9 runs per game, which ranks 9th in the league. Kyle Schwarber is leading the way with 5 dingers and 11 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos is hitting a respectable .308.
That might not seem too bad, but on the bump is where they really shine. Jesus Luzardo gets the start for Philly. He’s already 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA over 12 innings which includes striking out 19 and allowing just 1 home run. That’s a good sign for the Phillies, especially since Luzardo has been tough to hit — he’s rocking a 0.92 WHIP which puts him in the upper echelons of MLB pitchers.
The Braves, meanwhile, are a lowly 2-9, struggling early with a .182 winning percentage. That’s bad enough to place them last in the NL East.
They did win Game 1 of this series 7-5 on Tuesday night, but their offense has been extremely inconsistent. They’re averaging just 3.1 runs per game, which ranks 28th in the league. They have the potential, just need to pull it together.
Austin Riley has 2 home runs and 5 RBIs, while Marcell Ozuna is batting .373 with a .500 OBP. He’s getting on base, but not hitting with the power we’re used to seeing from him.
Spencer Schwellenbach takes the ball for Atlanta and he’s dominating so far this year. He’s coming into tonight’s game with a 1-0 record and a perfect 0.00 ERA over 14 innings. He’s struck out 14 and hasn’t given up a single home run, which could keep the Braves in this game. On top of that, he has a league-best 0.29 WHIP which is nearly unheard of.
Looking at team stats, the Phillies have a clear edge when it comes to offense. They’re hitting .265 which is 4th in the MLB compared to the Braves’ .215 which is way down at 21st. On top of that, they’re averaging 1.2 home runs per game while Atlanta is at 0.7.
Philadelphia also has a better ERA at 3.58 than Atlanta’s 4.39, but that’s for the team as a whole. As for the starters, the Braves have an edge here. The Phillies are limiting opponents to a .236 batting average, while the Braves are at just .251.
On the basepaths, the Phillies average a mediocre 0.9 stolen bases per game, while the Braves are barely swiping any bags at all with a 0.3. That could be due to not getting on base, and when they do, they’re not being aggressive.
The series' history adds some context as well. The Phillies won Game 2 by a score of 4-3, while the Braves took Game 1, 7-5. Up to this point in the season, the Phillies have been the better team overall, but the Braves have home-field advantage at Truist Park and they have the talent to really take over a game, but they haven’t figured it out this season. Is tonight the night they get it together?
The Phillies are going to win this game, and we’re taking them at +105 on the moneyline.
The Phillies’ offense has been much better than the Braves as they’re averaging 4.9 runs per game compared to Atlanta’s 3.1. Of course, they’re going up against one of the best arms. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are swinging hot bats, and they should be able to get to Schwellenbach, even with his 0.00 ERA and ridiculous WHIP. Schwellenbach has been great, but he’s only pitched 14 innings, and the Phillies’ lineup is too good to be held down for long. He might be that good, but it's still a small data set.
On top of that, Jesus Luzardo gives the Phillies a big edge on the mound. His 1.50 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 12 innings show he’s in top form, and the Braves’ struggling offense, with a .215 overall batting average, won’t be able to do much against him. The Phillies also have a better ERA and are limiting opponents to a lower batting average, which should help them retain control of this game. The Braves might get a boost from playing at home, but their offense has been too inconsistent to trust.
BettorsInsiders Prediction: Phillies 4, Braves 1
Best Bet: Phillies on the ML at +105
The Phillies are simply the hotter team right now, and they’ve got the momentum after winning Game 2. The Braves will fight to avoid losing the series, but Philadelphia’s bats and pitching will be the difference.