Welcome to the Thursday MLB slate, MLB lovers. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and many people are focused on Philadelphia vs. Atlanta and Minnesota vs. Kansas City.
While those will probably turn out to be great games, I've found some nice betting value on the Brewers vs. Rockies tilt at 3:10 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for April 10th.
Oddsmakers are favoring Milwaukee in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Brew Crew as a -115 favorite on the road at Coors Field. There hasn't been much movement at all in that line as of early Thursday morning, but a few shops have ticked up to -118 or so.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting lots of runs today in Colorado. The number opened at 10.5 runs, and most shops are juicing the Over. That only makes sense when you factor in the thin air of Coors.
24-year-old Quinn Priester will get to experience the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field for the first time this afternoon. The 6'3" righty was a 1st round draft pick of the Pirates back in 2019, and he has a fair amount of upside. He only got 7 starts in 2024 but showed an innate ability to keep the ball on the ground.
Ryan Feltner gets the ball for Colorado, and he's gotten off to a good start this season. The 28-year-old righty has reworked his slider and sweeper, which has led to a very good ERA of just 3.60 through his first two starts.
Neither one of these starters has dynamic stuff, so this game will likely come down to the bullpens in the late innings. That's where Milwaukee should have a distinct advantage.
While the starting pitcher edge is a close race, the Brewers have had the better overall lineup to begin 2025. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in runs scored through the first 5 innings, so they should be able to get Priester some run support early on. Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have shown some pop at the plate, as both have expected slugging percentages of over .463.
Colorado has struggled at the plate quite a bit so far. The Rockies rank 30th in WRC+ against righties and just 24th in runs scored in the first 5 innings of games. However, as you might expect, this team hits remarkably better at home.
MIL at COL - 3:10 PM EDT
Betting on a young guy like Priester does scare me, but I just can't ignore how much better Milwaukee is on offense. Christian Yelich hit a homer yesterday, which means that he's rounding into form after a slow start to 2025. I also expect William Contreras to get going at some point.
Even though Priester has a limited big league sample size, I still have him as 11 slots better than Feltner in my pitcher power rankings. This is mainly because his walk rate and ground ball rate were exceptional last season. Give me the Brew Crew in the first 5 innings! Good luck!