The Belmont Stakes is usually the longest and most demanding race of the Triple Crown but that’s not the case this year. Due to planned renovations at Belmont Park, the 157th running will shift to Saratoga Race Course for today’s big race. That change brings more than just a new location — it shortens the race from its usual 1½ miles to 1¼ miles. That might seem minor, but it’s not.
That alone makes this year’s edition one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
Unfortunately, there’s no Triple Crown bid in play, but there’s plenty to be excited about. We’ve got a Derby winner, a Preakness winner, and a group of challengers ready to upset the storyline for one of the biggest races of the year. The race carries a $2 million purse and features eight horses — each with something to prove.
The shift to Saratoga, plus the shorter distance, could throw a wrench in the usual strategies many riders would employ. If you’re looking for a breakdown, the latest Belmont Stakes 2025 odds, and a clear prediction of who we think will take it — we got it all right here.
Saratoga is one of the tighter tracks. It doesn’t have the long, wide turns that define the iconic Belmont Park and that makes a huge difference. At 1¼ miles, this year’s Belmont is closer in style to the Kentucky Derby than the traditional stamina test. Horses that rely on early speed or sharp positioning will undoubtedly benefit while closers may find themselves out of room before breaking out.
Pace will matter more than ever. If the early fractions are hot, the late runners can still make a splash, but if it’s slow up front, those trying to come from behind could be boxed in. All of this to say, the jockeys will be working out very strategic runs for this unique track.
The horse most impacted by this change might be Journalism, who looked powerful down the stretch in the Preakness but now faces a shorter, tighter track against fresher horses, and let's not forget what happened in the Derby.
The morning-line favorite is Journalism at 8-5. Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, he’s the only horse running all 3 Triple Crown races this year, though the chance for a Triple Crown is gone. He finished 2nd in the Derby and won the Preakness in style with a come-from-behind win. A son of Curlin, he’s shown strong finishing ability and handles pressure well. The question is whether he’s peaked in the series. 3 races in 5 weeks is a heavy lift for a 3-year-old.
Sovereignty, listed at 2-1, skipped the Preakness after winning the Derby to prep for the Belmont. That extra rest could pay off. Trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, this Godolphin homebred has been ultra-consistent with 3 wins in his last 5 starts and none of them fell below 2nd place. His workout at Saratoga on June 1 just underscored the fact that he’s ready. He tends to sit mid-pack and close hard, a style that worked at Churchill Downs and should be solid at Saratoga. The only worry is whether he’ll find the same rhythm at Saratoga.
Then there’s Rodriguez at 6-1, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith. This colt missed the Derby due to a foot issue but looked sharp earlier in the season with a win in the Wood Memorial. Baffert has won this race 3 times, and Smith knows how to win big regardless of who’s under him. If Rodriguez is 100% and gets a clean break, he’ll be in a striking position early and on a short track like this, which leaves little hope for others to get around him at the end. His recent Santa Anita workout was also encouraging.
Baeza comes in at 4-1. He was 3rd in the Derby and has the kind of tactical speed that could suit Saratoga’s shorter setup. Flavien Prat stays aboard for trainer John Shirreffs. Baeza doesn’t have Journalism’s finishing burst or Sovereignty’s pedigree, but he might sit in the perfect spot behind the leaders. If the front-runners lose steam, even on this shorter track, he could sweep right past for a 1st place finish.
Hill Road, at 10-1, is an interesting longshot that we wouldn’t sleep on. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Dylan Davis, he comes off a win in the Peter Pan Stakes. That race has been a traditional prep for the Belmont and on top of that it’s the same path Arcangelo took before winning in 2023. Of course, Hill Road doesn’t have the resume of the top contenders, but he’s lightly raced and improving. His 49-second workout at Belmont on May 30 shows he’s still sharp as a tack and has what it takes to get the win.
Pletcher also brings Crudo, listed at just 15-1. He’s the son of Justify and won the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard, so the experience is there. Although Crudo hasn’t faced the same level of competition as others in this field, his pedigree is strong, and he’s training well. This might be too much too soon, but he’s got an upside and could surprise a lot of fans.
2 longshots round out the field we’re keeping an eye on is Uncaged at 30-1 and Heart of Honor at 30-1. Uncaged finished 6th in the Peter Pan Stakes and doesn’t seem likely to make a major impact on this race, though Saratoga is known for surprises. Heart of Honor was 5th in the Preakness and 2nd in the UAE Derby but hasn't done much on U.S. soil. That could be good for experience.
Here are the current Belmont Stakes 2025 odds based on the morning line—
Journalism (8-5)
Sovereignty (2-1)
Baeza (4-1)
Rodriguez (6-1)
Hill Road (10-1)
Crudo (15-1)
Uncaged (30-1)
Heart of Honor (30-1)
These odds reflect how tight the top 4 contenders are and then the split between the rest of the pack. Journalism has earned favorite status based on his recent wins, especially that Preakness run, but Sovereignty is close behind and after the Derby, we can see why. If bettors get cold feet about Journalism’s workload, Sovereignty could become the post-time favorite. Baeza at 4-1 is also getting a bit of attention from handicappers who like his running style for this track.
Rodriguez offers the most value among the main players and has a realistic shot at taking this. His 6-1 line could shrink if money flows in on race day, which couldn’t surprise us given Baffert’s reputation and Smith’s experience.
There’s no doubt that this race is going to be about position and timing. With the shortened distance, there’s less room for error and that means even the smallest mistake will be amplified. Horses won’t have the luxury of taking their time to unwind around Belmont’s massive turns. This will be a cleaner, tighter, more tactical race.
Sovereignty looks like the one to beat. He’s rested, proven, and has shown he can close into a solid pace, especially on this size of track. His Derby performance was professional, and he’s training well at Saratoga. Don’t overlook that because that’s important — some horses don’t like the surface there, but Sovereignty seems comfortable just about wherever he goes.
Baeza feels like the main danger. He’s fast early but doesn’t burn out like many of the others. If Prat positions him just right, he could get the jump on the closers and steal this race in the final furlong. The shorter distance means some of the others like Journalism won’t have time to make it up.
Rodriguez is the wild card we’re keeping an eye on. If he’s healthy and gets a clean trip, he could absolutely be there at the finish. Baffert and Smith won’t be coming to Saratoga for fun and on top of that, we’ve felt like he was due for a breakout at a big race.
As for Journalism, the 3-race schedule finally catches up. He’s shown a ton of heart and took the Preakness, but 3 top-level efforts in such a short span is a big ask. Saratoga’s tight corners and quick finish might not be kind to a horse that does his best work late, hence he took 2nd in the Derby. He’ll make a move, but it might come just a few strides too late.
1st – Sovereignty
2nd – Baeza
3rd – Rodriguez
Journalism runs well but we see him settling for 4th. There’s simply not enough room for a last-stretch comeback like he had at Preakness. Hill Road could finish in the top 5 if the pace collapses, but even that’s a stretch.
This year’s Belmont Stakes may not crown a Triple Crown winner, but it still matters in the horse racing industry. It’s the kind of race where strategy matters more than raw ability and there’s still plenty of money on the line. The distance change levels the playing field and puts the focus on timing, stamina, and the right trip.
Whether you’re betting for the first time or just watching to see how this one unfolds, this one has layers. It’s a test of fresh legs vs. experience, of raw speed vs. closing power. Keep your eye on how the race unfolds early as that could be all the difference. If the pace heats up, it’s Sovereignty’s race to lose. If it’s soft up front, Baeza and Rodriguez could steal the show and surprise us all.
The 2025 Belmont won’t be traditional, but it’ll be real and loaded with excitement. And for the 8 horses in the gate, it’s a shot at history — even without a crown on the line.