The 151st Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, and the field looks as competitive as ever. We’ve got a full lineup of top-class 3-year-olds set to storm the 1¼ miles at Churchill Downs. With the post positions locked in and the odds shifting around, it's time to lock in some sharp Derby bets.
Instead of trying to hit the winner outright in a 20-horse chaos fest, targeting a few different bets on horses to hit the board or win/place/show can be the smarter play and usually a bit more profitable.
We’ve been tracking these ponies through several races and have found 3 strong bets featuring Sandman, Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez, with a mix of favorites and juicy longshots to attack Derby Day. On top of that, we’ve even put together a trifecta prediction to give you some diversity on your bet slip.
Sandman has been a quiet riser on the Derby trail, but his big win in the Arkansas Derby (G1) has turned a lot of heads.
What really makes him appealing here is his closing style — he doesn't need the lead early and can finish strong when others are tiring. He’s got the final push energy that is great on longer tracks and undoubtedly better on the shorter tracks like Churchill Downs. His Equibase Speed Figure of 104 isn't what we’d call elite compared to the very top contenders like Journalism, but it's plenty competitive for a top-3 finish and that’s where we see him landing.
Churchill Downs’ longer stretch is known for favoring horses with a strong late kick, and Sandman easily fits that bill. Plus, having Flavien Prat with the reins — a jockey who’s won the Derby before — only boosts our confidence in this bet.
Citizen Bull has a lot working against him — mainly the dreaded Post 1, which, crazy enough, hasn’t produced a Derby winner since 1986. But if you’re looking for a horse that could completely flip the board upside down and walk away with the $3.1 million purse, Citizen Bull is the play you’ll want to keep an eye on.
He was a monster as a 2-year-old, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G3). His form hasn’t been quite as sharp this year as he finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby, but there’s still big-time talent under the hood. Being trained by Bob Baffert, who’s tied for the most Derby wins ever, is another major plus that we like about this horse.
In a race where early pace could collapse, it may seem risky to back a front-runner. But if the track is favoring speed or the pace ends up being more moderate than expected, Citizen Bull could wire the field at huge odds which means a big win for you. For that reason alone, he’s worth a unit or two on your bet slip.
Rodriguez doesn’t have the flashiest resume in the field like some of the other contenders, but digging into the numbers shows a horse that’s right on the brink of a breakthrough.
His HRN Speed Figure of 128 is among the best in the field. On top of that, he’s run some monster races this spring — winning the Wood Memorial (G2) and Robert B. Lewis (G3).
Yes, he faded slightly in the Santa Anita Derby, but the pace that day was brutally fast early, and it cooked several frontrunners. Rodriguez has the early foot to get a prime stalking position, which is often the sweet spot at Churchill Downs. And like Citizen Bull, he’s trained by none other than Bob Baffert who knows exactly how to get horses ready for the Derby.
With a bet like this, you’re getting a horse who can handle the distance and is battle-tested against Grade 1 company. He has enough tactical speed to avoid traffic, and that’s a massive advantage in a 20-horse charge.
If you’re feeling a little bolder and want to try something different, here’s a trifecta ticket that could blow up your bankroll in a good way. The goal of this bet is to pick the first three finishers in order. It’s a steep bet, but pays out nicely if it hits.
Trifecta: Citizen Bull (1st) | Rodriguez (2nd) | Sandman (3rd)
This combination gives you a balanced ticket and is supported by the other bets. Citizen Bull has the tactical speed to sit right off the leaders and pounce. Sandman should be flying late to pick up the pieces. Rodriguez could cling on for 2nd if he blasts out of the gate and guts it out down the lane.
If you want to be safer, you can box it (any order), but boxing costs a bit more. The straight trifecta is the high-risk, high-reward play that fits Derby Day perfectly.
Of course, Journalism might be the favorite and the most complete horse on paper, but everyone knows that the Kentucky Derby is famous for blowing up tickets with wild results and making bettors a lot of money. Taking a smart approach with horses like Sandman, Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez — focusing on top-3 or top-2 finishes — opens the door to some serious profits without needing a perfect result.
And if you want to take your shot at a life-changer, that bonus trifecta could be your golden ticket to the riches.
We’ll keep an eye on the horses and field conditions as the big day approaches as those can always affect the outcome of the first race of the series.