The New York Mets are riding high on a 7-game win streak as they head into Petco Park to face the San Diego Padres Monday night. This isn’t just any streak; they’ve been demolishing some of the best teams, including sweeping the Giants. With both clubs in playoff contention and the trade deadline just days away, this could be a key tone-setting series for the stretch run, which makes this the perfect game for some betting action.
The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET tonight in San Diego. The Padres open this game as -131 favorites on the moneyline, while the Mets are just slight underdogs at +107. The over/under is set at 8 runs, with -111 odds on the over and -109 on the under. The run line sits at Padres -1.5 at +162 and Mets +1.5 at -200.
San Diego enters this one second in the NL West with a 57-49 record and a 31-18 mark at home. Sure, they might not be on a 7-game winning streak, but they’re not pushovers, either.. The Mets, meanwhile, lead the NL East at 62-44, but they’ve been just 25-28 on the road. However, their recent form tells us a bigger story.
New York comes in scorching hot. They've won 7 straight and swept the Giants in their last series and the Angels before that. San Diego is 5-5 in its last 10 games and just snapped a 3-game skid. They’re only 4 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and they're looking to gain some ground with tonight’s game.
Frankie Montas takes the bump for the Mets. He’s been used very sparingly this season, logging just 25.1 innings across 5 starts, but the results have been fairly solid with a 3-1 record, a 4.62 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP. He’s struck out 23 and walked 6 over that short period, and he's still stretching out, but the Mets are winning his starts, and that’s what matters.
On the other side of the diamond is Dylan Cease, who has had a rough go despite his stuff. His 3-10 record is a reflection of inconsistency, not just bad luck. He holds a 4.59 ERA and a matching 1.30 WHIP over 113.2 innings. While he’s struck out 144 batters, he’s also been prone to making a few mistakes as he’s allowed 16 home runs and 42 walks. That’s a dangerous mix against a power-hitting Mets lineup that can punish mistakes.
San Diego has the edge in innings and strikeout totals with Cease, but Montas comes in more efficiently and, frankly, with better momentum behind him. Cease isn’t looking like his usual self this year, and you can bet that the Padres are hoping he figures things out before too long.
Pete Alonso has been on a mission lately. He leads the team in average with .266, RBIs with 81, and slugging with .504, and he’s been a key part of their offensive surge. Juan Soto is living up to his contract as he adds punch with 25 home runs and 62 RBI, while also leading the team in walks and OBP.
The Mets aren’t just winning — they’re doing it convincingly. They've outscored their opponents 35-18 over their last 5 games, sweeping San Francisco and handling the Angels with ease before that. Even without huge batting averages, they make the most of every opportunity at the plate.
As a team, New York is batting just .243, which is only good for 20th in the MLB, but ranks 8th in homers and 14th in runs scored. Their .322 OBP shows they grind out at-bats and wear down starters.
The Padres rank better in batting average at .249, which puts them only 14th in MLB, but that hasn’t translated into runs. They sit 25th in runs scored, hitting just 0.8 homers per game, which is good for 29th in the league.
Manny Machado continues to carry the offense with a .300 AVG, 19 taters, and 66 RBI. He’s hot right now, coming off a 4-hit game on Sunday, but he surely can’t do it alone. Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. need to step up if San Diego is going to stay in the playoff picture and remain relevant in a smoking-hot NL.
San Diego’s biggest strength is pitching. Their team ERA of 3.58 ranks 5th in MLB, and they’re limiting opponents to a .229 OBA, good for 3rd-best. The issue they have is that they're not scoring enough to take advantage of those efforts.
Petco Park is one of the league’s toughest venues for hitters. It averages just 7.6 total runs per game, and the under has hit in 29 of 49 games there this season. That’s extremely important when evaluating the total because it means the park is fielder-friendly.
Both teams rank top 10 in team ERA, with the Mets at 3rd with a 3.52, and the Padres at 5th with a 3.58 — and each features an RHP who has flashed brilliance but hasn’t fully put it together in 2025.
The Mets rank in the top 10 in both strikeouts and OBA. They're disciplined, powerful, and pitching at an elite level right now. San Diego is solid but hasn’t shown the same level of sharpness lately, especially offensively.
The Padres are favored, but that feels more like a home-field nod to us than a true edge. The Mets are simply playing better baseball in the moment, and the value is clearly on the road team.
Montas may not go deep, but he’s been reliable enough early, and the Mets' bullpen ranks among the most efficient in late innings. On the other side, Cease has been an absolute strikeout machine, but his tendency to give up long balls and fall behind in counts is a red flag, even if the field is pitcher-friendly.
New York’s lineup is more balanced and in better form. With Alonso and Soto producing, and the team on a 7-game tear, there’s no reason to jump off the train now.
Mets vs Padres Score Prediction: Mets 5, Padres 3
Best Bet: Take the Mets moneyline at +107
The value is too good to pass up for the hottest team in the National League. We don’t think they’ll blow the socks off the Padres, but they’ll get the job done.