Well, this might not be the peak of these two rosters, but with the remaining talent, this should be an interesting game. Now with Minnesota on the road for the second time this year in Indy, we’ll see if they can take the series after winning two of the first third matchups.
DiJonai Carrington Out
Napheesa Collier Out
Caitlin Clark Out
Chloe Bibby Out
Sophie Cunningham Out
Sydney Colson Out
Aari McDonald Out
With the season coming to an end, these teams are both fighting to finish strong. With Clark and a bunch of other Fever players out, plus the Lynx missing Collier and Carrington, these aren’t the teams we’re used to. Despite the setbacks late in the season, both teams have played decently down the stretch. The Lynx seem likely to keep the number one spot, while the Fever look like they will make the playoffs.
For the Fever, this season has been all about growth. Starting the season somewhat rough and losing Clark for nearly the entire year, but still making the playoffs is a huge achievement. It’s been players like Mitchell, Boston, and Howard who have really kept the team moving forward. Mitchell, in particular, has stepped up as the team’s star, having her best scoring season ever. A big reason for Mitchell’s success has been Boston. Her ability to set solid screens to help Mitchell get open in the playoffs has been invaluable. Overall, this team has thrived through adversity and still looks dangerous despite having a thin roster.
The Lynx, on the other hand, seems to be in coast mode until the playoffs. With Collier and Carrington dealing with some nagging injuries, they’re both sitting this one out. Still, the Lynx are dangerous even on the road without those two. McBride has been dominant in stretches without Collier, and Hiedeman has stepped up in the last couple of games. It’s the overall effectiveness of the team defense that's taken them so far, so they should still be strong opponents today.
This matchup should be close, but I don’t see the Lynx losing this one. The talent on Indy is solid, but we’ve seen the Lynx be too dominant this year to lose this game. The Fever have had trouble scoring against tough defensive teams this year anyway. They took losses to the Mercury and Valkyries last week. Considering the Lynx's defense should still be strong, I don’t see them losing tonight. That’s why I’m going with the Lynx moneyline, the under on the 163.5 points total, and Minnesota at -2.
Money line: MIN (-135) / IND (+114)
Total Points: 163.5
Spread: -2 MIN (-112) / +2 IND (-108)
With the Fever falling apart late this year, Mitchell has been the only truly consistent offensive contributor outside of Boston. She has been solid the past few weeks, especially. She scored over 21 in five of her last ten games. In her last two games against Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, she scored 26 and 27 points. Especially with Carrington and Collier out, Mitchell will be in a prime position to have another explosive performance.
Hull continues to see her role grow this year. She has now been consistently moved into the starting lineup, and in those games, her offense has been inconsistent. It’s all about her shot attempts. If she averages around 9 per game, she has been reliably reaching that number. Considering the Fever are missing most of their shooters at this point, Hull should have plenty of shot opportunities tonight.
With Collier out tonight, Williams should see a significant increase in her box score. Rebounding might not be her top stat, but with her grabbing 8 against the Valkyries on Saturday, she’s demonstrated solid rebounding ability. Averaging nearly 5 per game, this should be within her capabilities, especially with a few extra reps against an already depleted Fever roster.