The Liberty are heading across the country to the Pacific Northwest to face the Storm. With both teams regaining steam as we make our way to the end of the season, this game is crucial for the postseason standings. We’ll see if the Liberty can grab this win on the road, or if Seattle will continue to build their momentum.
Nyara Sabally Questionable
Sabrina Ionescu Questionable
Katie Lou Samuelson Out
This is not where we expected the Liberty to be at this point in the season. Facing some tough injuries later in the year, they’ve fallen into a spiral. With Stewart still ramping up and Ionescu questionable, this team has lost its scoring edge. As one of the best two-way teams in the league, they dominated everyone early in the season, but now, it’s been a fall from grace. They’ve struggled to keep up with any of the top-tier teams and have been winning sporadically. Falling all the way to fifth. However, that doesn’t mean they’re out of this one. The Storm have had their own set of issues coming into this matchup.
With the season dragging on, the Storm’s age has started to show. Their scoring has plummeted as they struggle to keep up with most teams. Diggins’ fall has been the most noticeable, leaving the backcourt lacking in scoring for over a month. She’s regained her rhythm here and there, which has led to some late-season success, but against a team like the Liberty, who knows. With two wins over the Liberty this season, the Storm have the potential to beat them when Diggins is hot. Alongside her, Ogwumike, Williams, and Magbegor—combined with their strong defense and size—are where they’ve found success late in the season. Holding teams below 80 points most nights, the Liberty are going to struggle to find easy baskets tonight.
Tonight will be a tough matchup for the Liberty. With their shooting struggling all season and Stewart not scoring down low, Seattle has the advantage going into this game. The Liberty will need to push the pace and shoot well above their usual from three to break down the Seattle defense. Still, I don’t think the Liberty have the perimeter defense to stop Diggins, Sykes, and Williams. That’s why I’m backing the Seattle moneyline, betting the under on 162.5 points, and taking the Storm at -1.5.
Money line: NLY (+100) / SEA (-120)
Total Points: 162.5
Spread: +1.5 NLY (-108) / -1.5 SEA (-112)
Ogwumike has become the main offensive option for this team in the second half of the season. She’s been excelling both in the post and from outside, with plenty of shot attempts per game. Averaging 18.3 points this year, this line fits her typical performance. She’s gone over this line in 6 of her last 10 games, including scoring 26 in her recent game against the Liberty. She’s likely to do it again tonight.
Fading Jones's rebounding numbers has been a tricky but rewarding angle this year. Since she returned in mid-July, she’s been averaging around 7 boards per game, with a few outlier games pushing her season average to 8.4. However, her consistency isn’t there. She’s been under 8 rebounds in 6 of the last 10 games. Considering Seattle is one of the more scrappy teams on the boards and has a solid defense, I don’t think Jones will go down low as often tonight to grab boards. Also, since the under is slightly positive, this under looks very appealing.
With Diggins' scoring slowing down recently, she’s been more effective in playmaking. She’s had a strong streak of games with over 6 assists, snagging exactly 6 in her last two matchups against the Liberty. Now, as the season nears its end and her burst isn’t quite the same, I believe she’ll focus even more on facilitating. With her nabbing 6 assists in 6 of her last 10 games, taking the over is the best move tonight.