This might be one of the most anticipated games of the season. With the Aces on a 12-game win streak, taking on the best team in the league, the Minnesota Lynx, this will be a heavyweight showdown to watch, with two top MVP candidates, Collier and Wilson, squaring off.
DiJonai Carrington Out
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
This Aces run has been incredible. They have risen from a mildly disappointing season always into a true competitor. With 12 wins in a row under their belt, their last loss was to the Lynx back in the beginning of August. Now, nearly a month later, we finally get to see them squaring off in Vegas.
This run hasn’t been a fluke either. With A’ja Wilson leading the way, this has been one of the most impressive individual performances we’ve ever seen. She’s been scoring at one of the highest levels of her career, playing great defense, and dominating rebounds. It's not to say she’s done all of this alone. Jackie Young has been a strong second option behind Wilson. Her ability to move the ball, rebound, and score alongside Wilson is what makes everything work. Then, add role players like Gray, Loyd, and Smith, and you can see how this team has exploded at just the right time. Truly, the most impressive part of this run has been their ability to close out tight games. When you have a player like Wilson, it’s a cheat code in late-game situations, and she’s already stolen them at least three wins during this streak.
For the Lynx, the Aces are at their most dangerous point ever, but the Lynx still have the edge. Their ability to defend has been key to their long-term success. It’s truly been the Lynx and Valkyries in a different league defensively than the rest of the league, but the Lynx can also play offense. Behind Collier, they’ve been a destructive team. With some of the best depth in the league backing it up, there isn’t a weak point on this defense. Between Collier, McBride, and Williams, it’s clear where the success has come from.
This matchup should be very close. The Lynx are one of the few teams capable of really challenging Wilson. However, when she’s performing at this level, that might not even be enough. Still, the Lynx's depth gives me some hope. Even though they are playing on the road in Vegas, who have been a top home team this year, I still see the edge with the Lynx. Having already beaten the Aces three times this year, I believe the Vegas streak ends tonight. That’s why I’m betting on the Lynx moneyline, the over on 163.5 points, and Minnesota at -2.5.
Money line: MIN (-135) / LVA (+114)
Total Points: 163.5
Spread: -2.5 MIN (-108) / +2.5 LVA (-112)
The Lynx might be the only team out there that can truly slow down Wilson. Even though she’s been averaging in the upper 20s per game lately, with several 30+ performances, the Lynx have been a different level. In their last matchup, Wilson only scored 10 points, and before that, she averaged 15 against the league’s best defense. With the line set all the way at 22.5, the under looks very tempting tonight for the first time in a while for Wilson.
This line feels like they could have increased it a bit, but at 12.5, the over looks promising. McBride hasn’t been putting up huge numbers every night, but against the Aces, she’s performed well. She’s also been on a roll overall, hitting the over on this line in her last five games. As long as McBride gets her usual number of shot attempts at 11, she has a good chance of hitting the over again tonight.
This is a crucial game for Collier. With Collier leading the MVP race most of the season, this recent Vegas game has put her at risk of losing to Wilson again. This is their last head-to-head matchup for voters, and I expect Collier to make the most of the chance. Having already had a strong game against the Aces last time they played, scoring 25 points, I expect her to do the same again!