The Sparks are in Atlanta tonight to face the dominant Dream. They’ve been one of the top teams all season, and as we get closer to the playoffs, they seem ready to make a strong push. The Sparks, on the other hand, are just trying to reach a 500 record. Sitting at 19-20, they’ve been so close to a winning record but haven’t quite gotten there. We’ll see if they can do it tonight or if Atlanta will keep dominating the competition.
Rickea Jackson Day to Day
Taylor Thierry Out
Allisha Gray Day to Day
With the Dream running the show in the Eastern Conference, this looks like an uphill battle for the Sparks. Despite a strong turnaround later in the season, the Sparks are still far from what we expected of them. Even getting Brink back hasn’t been enough to get them to put together a winning streak. They’re just stuck in this constant cycle of one step forward, one step back, which keeps them in the middle of the standings. That’s despite having one of the best offenses in the league, with high-caliber scorers across the roster. Players like Plum, Hamby, and Jackson have been unstoppable this season, ranking second in the league for points per game. The only issue has been the defense. This team can’t stop anyone, and it turns every game into a scrappy brawl.
For the Dream, that couldn’t be more different from their typical play style. Yes, they’re a capable offensive team, but they’ve turned their size into their biggest advantage. With the ability to slow down the post game, they rank third in opponent points allowed. It’s this excellent two-way game that has made them one of the most consistent teams in the league. They may not go on huge runs like the Aces or Lynx, but they’ve only lost two or more games in a row twice all season. Between Jones, Howard, and Gray, this group has been one of the most well-rounded teams in the league.
This matchup isn’t going to look pretty. The Sparks just don’t have the defense to slow down the Dream enough, especially with how Atlanta’s front court has been playing. Even with Gray questionable coming into this one, I don’t think it’ll matter. The Dream have just shown us they’re the better team time and time again this season. That’s why I’m going with the Atlanta moneyline, the over on the 169 points total, and the -7 spread for the Dream.
Money line: LAS (+250) / ATL (-310)
Total Points: 169
Spread: +7 LAS (-108) / -7 ATL (-112)
This is a somewhat unusual line for Plum. She’s been a consistently strong scorer this year again, averaging nearly 20 points per game. Recently, her scoring has dipped a bit, but she is still well within reach of 17 points. With the Dream playing solid defense, this game might be tough, but in her last matchup against them, she scored 27 points, so she’s more than capable of surpassing this line tonight.
It’s a bit odd that the books have the two leading scorers on the Sparks set at 16.5, especially when Hamby has been hitting her line over 50% of the time over the last couple of weeks. She’s even averaging 18 points a game for the season, with no sign of slowing down lately. As long as she can keep her shot attempts near 15 tonight, she’ll be right around 17 points again.
Jones has been effective on the boards this season, but 6.5 is right on the edge for her. She’s hit the under on this line in 5 of the last 10 games. With her last game against the Sparks only seeing her reel in 2 boards in 35 minutes on the court, with even odds on the under, the value is definitely there for the under tonight.