The Mercury are on the road to LA as we enter the final stretch of the season. With some struggles on both sides, this could be a key game for playoff standings. With the middle of the pack separated by only a few games, a win here could push either team closer to a guaranteed playoff spot. We’ll see if the Sparks can defend at home or if the tidal wave of Alyssa Thomas will be too much for the Sparks as well!
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It’s been a rollercoaster month for both of these teams. With the Sparks trying to fight their way into the playoff race, they’re only a few games behind the 6th spot. The Mercury are in a slightly better position at the fourth spot, but with the Aces already passing them, they can’t afford to lose many more games this season.
For the Sparks, this has been just a disappointing year. Adding Plum and getting Brink back was supposed to turn this team into a real contender. However, a slow start, some inconsistent play, and poor defense held them back. As Brink gradually gets back to form, they’ve looked better, but sitting one game below 500 isn’t ideal. It’s been largely the Plum show, with her carrying the offense most nights alongside Hamby. They have one of the highest-scoring offenses, averaging 86 points per game, only behind the Lynx, but the defense still struggles. They’re giving up 88 points a game this season, the worst in the league. This team is all gas, no brakes. Brink was supposed to be the defensive post protector they needed, but with her recovery taking longer than expected, things have just festered. Overall, this team still has the offensive weapons to beat anyone, but with every game turning into a physical battle, this isn’t a sustainable model.
The Mercury, on the other hand, is much more middle-of-the-road. Their offense is solid, among the best in the league, and with an average defense, this team remains competitive—especially with such a stacked top three of Sabally, Thomas, and Copper. There is a good reason they're 22-14 on the year. So, as long as they can use their superior defense to slow down the LA offense, the Mercury shouldn’t struggle. They’ve already beaten LA twice this year, including once in LA. That’s why I’m leaning toward the Mercury moneyline, the over on the 177.5 points total, and the Phoenix spread at -3.5.
Money line: PHO (-175) / LAS (+145)
Total Points: 177.5
Spread: -3.5 PHO (-112) / +3.5 LAS (-108)
Hamby continues to be one of the more reliable scorers for the Sparks. However, with the line at 18 points, that’s right on the edge of her average. With her hitting the under or over roughly half the time over the last ten games, it’s a bit of a coin flip to bet on her performance against the Mercury tonight. But in their last two matchups against the Sparks, they only allowed Hamby to score 15 points in each game. Since this game is in LA, it might be more difficult, but Phoenix's front court defense should be able to slow Hamby down in this one.
Even though Brink hasn’t resumed a normal workload, she’s still been productive off the bench. Averaging 4.2 rebounds a game, she’s been getting a little more playing time, which has boosted her rebounding numbers. In her last game against the Wings, she had 8 rebounds in just 19 minutes. Of course, the Wings don’t have the best frontcourt, but still, when given the opportunity, Brink can deliver on the over. Especially with this game being a key matchup for the Sparks at home, I could see them using her a little more than expected.
Thomas has been on a hot streak lately. She’s been filling out the box score with every major stat, and her rebounding numbers in particular have been outstanding. She’s had seven games in her last ten with over 10 rebounds. It’s been incredible to watch her take control of this team late in the season like this. Since LA doesn’t have overwhelming size to throw at her most of the game, she should be right around 10 rebounds again.