The Mercury and Aces are back at it as they compete for second place in the Western Conference. With both teams sitting seven games behind, this game could be crucial in determining the postseason matchups. We’ll see if the Mercury can finally halt the Vegas run or if the Aces increases their win streak to 9 in a row!
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Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
The Aces look unstoppable at the moment. They’ve been on one of the hottest streaks of the season as they’ve swung from the middle of the pack to the top. It’s been a masterclass in basketball from A’ja Wilson, who is making a very strong case for her second MVP. She’s averaging nearly 28 points a game over the last ten, and over 10 rebounds a game. Her ability to get to the line has really set her apart. She’s able to beat defenders to her spots, draw doubles in the paint, and still finish while getting the and-one. She’s had multiple games during this stretch with over 10 free throws attempted. Overall, she’s been an unstoppable force that, paired with Young, has created an explosive offense that has dominated even some of the league’s best defenses.
The Mercury, on the other hand, has had much more sustained success over the season. They started strong but have fallen off a bit, closer to a 500 team lately. With a tough schedule the last couple of weeks, they’ve managed to keep their record solid, but they’ve shown some cracks. Against some of the top teams in the league like Atlanta or New York, they’ve struggled to hold their own. Their offense is good, but it’s not standout like the Aces currently are. They’re more of a defensive team that can shoot, but it’s worked well enough to keep the wheels moving, and it has them sitting in second. With a loss to the Aces last Friday in a close matchup, they’ve shown their ability to keep pace with Vegas. However, they’ll need Sabally, Thomas, or Copper to have a standout game. They’ll have to win this game through offense, and if they’re landing their threes, it’s very achievable.
This matchup will mainly hinge on how they defend Wilson. You can’t do much about her scoring, but avoiding sending her to the line should keep her in check. She was sent to the line 15 times in the last game, and with the Aces' win margin being just 3 points, every one of those free throws made a difference. Still, I’m a bit skeptical that Mercury can beat the Aces in Vegas. The Aces have been strong at home with a 13-5 record, and based on their recent play, I doubt they stumble tonight. That’s why I’m taking the Aces moneyline, betting the over on 170.5 points, and giving the Vegas spread at -1.5.
Money line: PHO (+105) / LVA (-125)
Total Points: 170.5
Spread: +1.5 PHO (-108) / -1.5 LVA (-112)
Well, why stop now? Wilson is on a hot streak late in the season, and it’s obvious. She’s been dominating for the past ten days, scoring 30 or more points each game. With the line starting to rise, the 24.5 still offers some value. A’ja just had a big game against them last Friday, dropping 30 points in a close win in Phoenix. Now that the Aces are back home, Wilson has a great chance to hit the over again!
Young has slowed down slightly over the last few games, but she’s still getting her shots. In her last game against the Mercury, she barely hit the over with 17 points. She’s been about 50% hitting the over in her last ten games, with some solid outings of over 20. With her average just about 13 shots a game, she’s increasing her volume to hit this line; she’ll just need to make a couple of threes, and the over will be well within reach!
This is one of the safer bets of the night. Thomas has been an effective rebounder, but with her focused on defending the post from Wilson all game, it will probably lower her rebounding numbers. After only grabbing 6 boards last game against the Aces, it’s going to be a tough match for her. Sticking with the safe option on the under seems like the best play.