The Mercury are on their way to the bay, as the Valkyries host. With the Valkyries’ season taking a bit of a turn after the Thornton injury, they’re still far beyond where anyone thought they’d be. Winning seven of their last ten has kept them in the playoff hunt while the Mercury sit near the top of the standings. This should be be an interesting battle between two defensive powerhouses.
Monique Akoa Makani Questionable
Iliana Rupert Questionable
Monique Billings Out
Kayla Thornton Out
The Valkyries have been one of the most entertaining storylines of the entire season. Their first season as an NBA team, and they’ve actually built a solid team. With a philosophy focused on size and defense, they’ve become a tough team to face. They’re second in the league for opponent points allowed, only behind the Lynx. With such strong defense, it’s clear why this team is just above 500. They’re a tough team to beat and only getting better as they develop chemistry. Offensively, that’s a different story. Since Thornton went down, they lost their main scorer, and that role hasn’t been filled. Veronica Burton is the closest thing they have, but she’s inconsistent. Overall, the team averages just 77 points per game, which is the third-worst in the league.
The Mercury, on the other hand, have been in a weird spot. After a hot start, they hit some bumps in the middle but have kept things going with a 20-13 record. This team is much more well-rounded compared to the Valkyries. Their scoring is decent, with Sabally, Thomas, and Copper. However, they’re sneaky good defensively. They’re fourth in the league in opponent points allowed and are near the top in steals per game. With a feisty, fast defense, they’re excellent at forcing turnovers and creating challenging shots.
Overall, this should be an interesting matchup. The Valkyries have been incredible at slowing down almost every team they face. But with their weak offense, going against the Mercury’s solid defense worries me. The Valkyries just need a go-to option on offense, and without one, I don’t see them competing tonight. With Phoenix taking both of the games they’ve played this year already, they’re a safe bet tonight. That’s why I’m taking the Mercury moneyline, the over on 154.5 total points, and the Phoenix -6.5 spread.
Money line: PHO (-258) / GSV (+210)
Total Points: 154.5
Spread: -6.5 PHO (-108) / +6.5 GSV (-112)
Sabally is one of my favorite picks tonight. She’s been a bit streaky scoring-wise, but she usually does well against the weaker teams in the league. In her last games against the Sun and Wings, she scored well over 20 points. With the line at 15.5, the over still looks like the stronger choice tonight.
Why not just double down on the Mercury offense in this game? Copper has been excellent at shooting this season. Her three-point percentage is just under 40%, with her taking nearly 5 threes per game. She’s even been a little less streaky than Sabally, consistently averaging in the mid-teens in scoring most games. 16 points should be well within her range tonight.
Salaun continues to be one of the season's gems. Coming into the league relatively out of nowhere, she has had a solid season. Averaging just 10 points a game, she’s been regularly contributing to the mid-tier teams lately. With her three-point shot really improving recently, she’s excellent when she gets enough attempts. Steadily taking around 9 to 11 shots per game, her performance really depends on her three-point shooting, but shooting 39% from three this season should give her a good chance of reaching at least 12 points tonight.