Despite this being the third game in a row the Lynx have played the Liberty, this should still be a solid game. The Lynx have dominated the last two, winning both. With the Liberty still struggling with injuries, that’s no surprise, but with Collier likely out and Stewart potentially available, this third game may finally swing back toward New York.
Napheesa Collier Doubtful
Isabelle Harrison Out
Breanna Stewart Questionable
Nyara Sabally Out
In a strange part of the schedule, the Lynx play at away, then home, then away again against the Liberty. It’s odd to see the same matchup so many times in a row, but it’s been a solid series so far. The Lynx won game one easily, but game two in Minnesota was close, with the Lynx winning by 6. Overall, the Liberty have been outmatched without Stewart on the court. They haven’t found the consistent scoring they’re used to without Stewart’s offensive presence in the front court. Ionescu has been putting up impressive numbers, but with defenses focusing on her, she’s been wearing down lately. Especially against the Lynx defense, Ionescu has struggled to find much success offensively.
The Lynx just have that extra bit of depth that’s helping them get through these games without Collier. With her expected to return to the court soon, tonight doesn’t seem like the night. However, McBride and Williams have been doing an excellent job without her. The defense has been the key difference lately, though. They continue to allow one of the lowest points in the league from their opponents. They consistently shut down offenses before they can get started. It’s this defense-first approach that makes them so resilient even without their MVP candidate.
In terms of the matchup, there is a reason that the Lynx have won both of the games so far. It’s that potent defense that can suffocate even the best scoring teams in the league. It’s not hopeless for the Liberty at all, though. With Stewart participating in a full practice on Monday, she might be ready to go soon, if not today. Even if she doesn’t return, the shooters on the Liberty can always heat up to compete with anyone. That’s why I have to take the Liberty tonight on the moneyline, the under on the 165.5 total points, and the -3 spread on New York.
Money line: MIN (+130) / NYL (-155)
Total Points: 166.5
Spread: +3 MIN (-110) / -3 NYL (-110)
Even though Meesseman is a 32-year-old rookie, she’s come out swinging after earning an opportunity earlier this August. Currently averaging 15 points over her 7 games this year, she’s been dominant against smaller teams. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case against the Lynx. In the past two games against them, she scored 11 and 10 points. Also, with Stewart potentially returning, that would significantly reduce Meesseman’s playing time. I think the under is the better bet.
McBride just loves to sit right in that 12 to 18 points range per game. She’s consistent in that range, but in both games against the Liberty, she hit the upper end of that, scoring 17 and 18. With Collier likely out for tonight’s game, McBride will have the opportunity to increase her shot attempts again. As long as she can either knock down a couple of threes or get to the line like last game, she should be able to reach 15 points easily.
It’s no secret that Jones is an elite rebounder, but her numbers seem to be leveling off a bit. She’s only gone over this line three times in the last ten games. She missed it by a couple of rebounds in both of her games against the Lynx. Betting on the under feels like the safer choice tonight.