With the Sparks stealing the last matchup between these two in New York, it’s the Liberty’s turn to try to get one back on them! Heading down to LA for the first and only time this season, they’ll need something to change as injuries continue to stunt their season. We’ll see if the fully healthy Sparks can get another one over on the reigning WNBA champs.
Kennedy Burke Out
Isabelle Harrison Out
Breanna Stewart Out
Nyara Sabally Out
None
This should be an interesting game. It’s been a few weeks since their last matchup that took Stewart down. Without her, the ceiling of the Liberty has dropped significantly. They’re still one of the best teams in the league, but they’re no longer head and shoulders above most of the field. With her out for the rest of August most likely, it’s up to the other stars on this team to pick up the slack.
We have already seen Sabrina Ionescu step up significantly in scoring. Her offensive workload has surged. For a brief time after Stewart went down, Ionescu jumped to nearly 27 points per game, with multiple games over 30. She has since cooled off a bit, but she’s still seeing heavy usage every game. Jones and Cloud have also stepped up somewhat, providing some post offense and playmaking in the absence of Stewart. Regardless, missing Stewart really hurts this team. Dropping the offensive ceiling much closer to the Sparks, which is why the last game was so close. Still, even without Stewart, I believe the Liberty are the better team heading into this game, but on the road, we’ll see.
The Sparks have been a second-half of the season team. With their record still just below 500, they’ve had an incredible July and August so far. Especially with the return of Cameron Brink, the ceiling of this team is much higher than expected. They’ve also been defeating other very talented teams with wins over Indy and Seattle. This run has been mainly driven by Plum's epic effort on offense. She has been one of the most reliable scorers this year and has taken the entire offense under her wing. Pairing her with Rickea Jackson, who can take over any game, and Hamby running things in the post, shows the clear vision behind this team.
Regarding the matchup, I expect it to be close. In their last win over the Liberty, almost everything went right for LA. They shot 40% from three, 51% from the field, and dominated most statistical categories. Yet, they only won by 2 points. If there’s one thing this year has shown, it’s that the Liberty are very consistent. You can have a good night and push past them, but anything average won’t be enough. As much as I want to back the Sparks tonight, I think they’re too unpredictable to rely on against the Liberty. The game will probably be close, but I’m betting on the Liberty moneyline, the over on 176.5 points, and LA at +4.
Money line: NYL (-175) / LAS (+145)
Total Points: 176.5
Spread: -4 NYL (-110) / +4 LAS (-110)
Ionescu has dipped a bit lately after a remarkable run. Against the Lynx and the Wings, she was well below this line, but before those games, she was averaging over 20. In her recent game against the Sparks, where Stewart went down with an injury, Ionescu scored 30 points. Considering the Sparks' defense is still somewhat leaky, and the Liberty need Sabrina's scoring, the over on 19.5 seems like a good bet tonight.
You’ll know early if Jackson's going to have a big game. She’s hot or cold from almost the moment she steps on the court. She can score 6 or 20 points, with not much in between. That’s why this 14.5 point line is so interesting. I’m leaning toward the over, especially since she scored 22 points the last time she faced the Liberty. She’s been a bit off since then but remains a very capable scorer when her three-pointer is falling.
Jones remains a key player for the Liberty, especially with Stewart out. She’s been performing well inside, but she's clearly starting to slow down a bit later in the season. Still averaging about 30 minutes a game, her rebounding numbers have declined since her injury comeback. Since late July, she’s only exceeded 7.5 rebounds in just under half of the games. Considering she fell short of this milestone last time versus the Sparks, plus the attractive odds, this line offers great value!