Unfortunately, we won’t get to see the back-to-back number one pick battle again with Clark sidelined tonight. However, it looks like we’ll see Bueckers, who was questionable for this game yesterday. Regardless, there is a lot to love about this matchup despite the record difference. We’ll see what the Wings have left in the tank as they face the Fever in Indy.
Myisha Hines-Allen Probable
Paige Bueckers Probable
Caitlin Clark Out
Sydney Colson Questionable
Aari McDonald Questionable
This hasn’t been a competitive series between these two teams. With the last game between these two a little under two weeks ago, not much has changed. The Wings are currently on a five-game losing streak, while the Fever continues to improve their record.
For the Wings, this team is just stuck in a rebuilding year. The good thing for them is they absolutely knocked it out of the park with Bueckers. She’s statistically having one of the best rookie seasons ever, with numbers not far off Clark’s rookie season last year. She’s an absolute star with the ball in her hands and efficient. You don’t see her turn the ball over or take low-percentage shots often. The rest of the team does need some help, though. If there is one thing they desperately need, it’s some post players. Right now, the roster is very heavy with guards, and with really only Maddy Siegrist, Luisa Geiselsoder, and Li Yueru playing in the paint often, they’ve struggled to find points from their front court. This is also with the front court looking better with Siegrist returning from injury, and the Wings trading for Yueru. Before that, the front court was basically nonexistent. Still, this week the front court has the Wings sitting near the top in opponent points per game, with teams averaging 86 points against them. On the other end of the court, the Wings just don’t have the firepower to consistently make up that gap.
Compared to the Wings, this Fever team is massive. With solid size in their front court and a much better lineup of shooters, the Wings are going to have a tough time. The Fever has also been on a strong run lately, proving to the league that this team isn’t just about Clark. Even with her continued absence, they’ve been on one of their best runs this year, winning 6 of their last 8 games essentially without Clark. With size down low in Boston and Howard supported by a solid group of perimeter shooters, this is exactly the kind of modern offense most teams want to run. Between Cunningham and Mitchell, plus Hull off the bench, this squad has become one of the most dangerous on offense. Defensively, they’re solid, but they still tend to give up a lot of points, averaging 81 per game. They may not be at the top of the league yet, but this young group is definitely heading in that direction.
As for the matchup, I don’t expect there to be one. I think the Fever are going to take care of business at home and knock the Wings out early. Especially with their vast scoring advantage and the Wings' weak defense, I don’t see the Wings keeping up. That’s why I’m taking the Dallas moneyline, the over on the 171.5 points total, and the -9.5 Indy spread.
Money line: DAL (+340) / IND (-440)
Total Points: 171.5
Spread: +9.5 DAL (-110) / -9.5 IND (-110)
Bueckers' overs have been the popular choice for a while now, but against the Fever, she’s performed even better. In her two games against the Fever this season, she’s averaged 24 points per game. With her season average at 18.5 points, this line is right on the edge. She’s also been at or above this line in almost every game since the All-Star break. With her shooting splits looking excellent, the only questions about Bueckers are about her health and shot volume. As long as she’s feeling well enough to reach her usual 15 attempts per game, she should be in a good position to hit the over.
I expected more from Boston last time she played Dallas. Finishing with only 12 points, she struggled with her shot in that game. However, in their first matchup, she scored 21 points, so we know she can reach that level against this team. Over her last 10 games, she has been averaging around 15 points, which is roughly her season scoring average, so this over should be within reach. Especially considering the limited post size the Wings have. I’d still like to see Boston use her size more to take advantage down low, but she’s a talented scorer who doesn’t need to be overly physical to get her points.
This is one of those lines that feels surprisingly low to start with, so taking the under seems a bit unnatural. However, looking at Mitchell’s last few games against the Wings, scoring is her main focus. She only had 3 assists in both of those games and has been about 50/50 hitting this line over her last 10 games. I think we’ll see her hold onto the ball more, especially with Clark still sidelined tonight, as she looks for her own shot.