We’ve got an interesting game on our hands tonight, with the Sun heading to San Francisco to take on the Valkyrie. Since neither team is eyeing a postseason run this year, this game is more about improvement than winning. We’ll see which one of these squads can steal a much-needed win tonight.
Kayla Thornton Out
None
Both Connecticut and Golden State face the same problem: they can't score. These teams are among the worst shooters in the league, shooting around 40% from the field and 30% from three. However, this should make for a more evenly matched game.
For the Sun, this has been just a lost season. They’ve been stuck at the bottom of the standings all year. With little sign of improvement, this team seems ready for a rebuild. While veterans like Bria Hartley and Tina Charles try to keep things afloat, the team simply lacks talent. Especially with their bench getting much younger, it’s been a mismatch of two different styles that hasn’t been working.
For the Valkyrie, they’ve actually had a surprisingly good first season. Even with the team running younger, this group plays hard. They’ve been winning games through their defense despite their lack of shooting. With tall, athletic wings around, it’s hard to find a point to attack on this team. It should make for an interesting night against the Sun.
This matchup is going to be all about who can score. If the Sun are able to get some threes to drop, I think they’ll have a decent shot at winning this game. They did beat the Valkyrie last time they played. They even managed to score 94 points in that game, with Charles leading the way with 24 points. I think they’ll be able to repeat that performance. I believe Charles will have a feast inside against Golden State. If so, I don’t see anyone on the Valkyries who can effectively close the gap. That’s why I’m going with the Sun moneyline, the over on the 155.5 points total, and the +7.5 Connecticut spread.
Money line: CON (+260) / GSV (-325)
Total Points: 155.5
Spread: +7.5 CON (-112) / -7.5 GSV (-108)
Salaun hasn’t been putting up big scoring games lately, but against the Sun, she has a chance. Still, with the line set at just 11.5 points, the over looks fantastic. She’s averaging 10 points a game this season, and with her minutes increasing after Thornton’s injury, she should get enough time on the court to hit 12+ points.
Mabrey has been playing well lately, scoring over 16 points in four of her last five games. With an average of 15 points per game, this is right in her wheelhouse. However, I don’t think she’ll do well against the Valkyries tonight. They have so much size and defensive ability to throw at Mabrey all night. Unless she’s hitting threes, I don’t see her having much of a chance to put up big numbers tonight.
With Charles averaging around 6 rebounds a game usually, I believe those numbers will rise a bit. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the league from the field and three-point range. Both are barely hitting 40%, which should create more rebounding chances for Charles. Especially with the current over at +124, this looks like one of the best props of the night.