With the Liberty struggling lately and the Wings coming to town, this could turn out to be a surprisingly good game. The Wings managed to beat the Liberty just a week ago in Dallas, and since then, the Liberty have been having a tough time. They’ve gone 1-4 in their last give games, with this group struggling without Stewart. We’ll see if the Wings can take advantage again or if the Liberty are about to bounce back!
Breanna Stewart Out
Kennedy Burke Out
Nyara Sabally Out
Myisha Hines-Allen Questionable
Tyasha Harris Out
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Liberty were soaring toward the top of the playoffs again this year, but that has come to a halt. They’re still 18-10 on the season, but losing four of their last five isn’t helping. This team needs Stewart back, but she’s still without a timeline for her return, which is worrying. In the meantime, Ionescu has stepped up on offense, but they’ve still struggled to contain their opponents. Defense was key to their early-season run, but now they’re allowing teams to routinely score over 90 points. They’ll need to fix that tonight and try not to get into a shootout with Dallas. I still believe the Liberty could win that battle, but it would level the playing field for both teams. Mainly, the Liberty are going to need another strong night from Ionescu. If she’s hitting and can give them another big scoring night, they’ll stay right in this game.
For the Wings, this will be a tough game on the road. The Liberty, even without Stewart, are still dangerous. They have depth and capable players throughout their roster. This makes it even more impressive that the Wings have already defeated the Liberty. It wasn’t close, either, with the Wings leading by 30 at one point. The Wings simply played a more disciplined game. They forced the Liberty out of their half-court offense and did give up some second-chance points. On the offensive end, the Wings attacked the paint aggressively, scoring easy points and earning second-chance opportunities. Overall, this game was influenced by the Wings' ability to find penetration on the offensive end. If they can identify the same gaps in the defense, they should perform well again tonight.
Overall, the Wings still face a tough challenge coming into this game. Even without Stewart, New York's talent remains too strong night after night. Although I don’t believe the Wings should have an +11 spread, playing in NY is always tough. So I’m backing the Liberty moneyline, the under on the 176-point total, and Dallas +11.
Money line: DAL (+425) / NYL (-575)
Total Points: 176
Spread: +11 DAL (-110) / -11 NYL (-110)
Bueckers has been a solid choice for us on the overs lately. She’s been a good scorer, and with the line right at her season average of 18.5, getting even money is great. She’s gone over this line in the last three games, and before that, it was about 50/50. She scored 20 in her last game against the Liberty, where the Wings got a win last Monday.
Ionescu has been unleashed. The team asked her to step up with Stewart sidelined, and she has responded. With 36, 23, and 31 points in her last three games, Sabrina has been on fire. She is already averaging 20 points per game. Her shot attempts continue to rise as well, with her averaging nearly 20 attempts recently. Even though the over is one of the highest we’ve seen set this season, I still like it for Ionescu tonight.
Jones has been excellent on the boards, but this line feels a little too high. She’s only averaging 8.9 rebounds per game, and has only grabbed 10+ boards in two of her last ten games. Yes, the Wings do lack size in the post, but with the way Ionescu has been rebounding alongside her size, I don’t see Jones surpassing 10 rebounds tonight.