The Valkyries are in flight to take on the Mystics. It’s been a while since these teams have faced each other. They played back in mid-May, but not much has changed since then. Both teams are sitting near 500. With the Valkyries winning that first game, we’ll see if the Mystics can even things up tonight on their home court.
Aaliyah Edwards Out
Sika Kone Out
Georgia Amoore Out
Cecilia Zandalasini Questionable
Monque Billings Out
Kayla Thornton Out
The Valkyries continue to surprise me after a win over the Dream on Tuesday. That was without Kayla Thornton, who’s out for the rest of the season but was leading the Valkyries in most counting stats. With their top scorer gone, I thought things would change, but they didn't. They went out and stole a win on the road from the Dream in a close finish. There’s something about how this team is built. Their main focus seems to be on length and defense. They can’t score efficiently, but they turn most of their games into low-scoring battles. How that will compare against the Mystics could go either way. At the very least, Golden State is coming into this game with some momentum. We’ll see if that’s enough to beat the Mystics again.
For the Mystics, they’re kind of in a split timeline situation. You’ve got Sykes on one side leading the team, and the third pick in the draft this year, Sonia Citron, right behind her. It’s an interesting team from top to bottom, but with some notable similarities to the Valkyries. They win primarily through defensive effort, and the offense on both sides is limited. What the Mystics do have is Sykes, a solid veteran leader who can take over at moments. Her scoring efficiency hasn’t been what it was in the past, but night to night, she’ll have flashes.
Overall, this matchup will depend on who hits their jumpers. Both teams shooting in the low 30s percentage from three-point range means those shots will be crucial. With this game likely to be low scoring and defensively intense, just a few more three-pointers could make the difference tonight. That’s why I’m leaning toward the Mystics on the moneyline, the under on the 154 points total, and the +4.5 spread for Golden State.
Money line: GSV (+164) / WAS (-198)
Total Points: 154
Spread: +4.5 GSV (-110) / -4.5 WAS (-110)
Citron had a strong night in their last game against the Sky, scoring 28 points. Averaging 14 points per game, her recent performances haven’t been as impressive. Throughout most of July, she has been under 14 points, hitting that mark only three times all month. With her shot volume decreasing during this period, I think tonight is a good opportunity to hedge against a repeat Sky performance and bet on the under.
Zandalasini had a surprising game the other day against the Dream. She increased her workload to make full use of the vacancy left by Thornton. She scored 18 points and took more shot attempts than usual. This might have been just an outlier game, but I think she could find more opportunities in the near future if she continues to have this kind of success.
Salaun has been somewhat of a breakout player on the Valkyries this year. Going undrafted, the fact that she is getting consistent playing time is impressive. However, her production is inconsistent, and with Thorton out now, it’s become even more unpredictable. As lineups adjust and Salaun’s playing time fluctuates, the under is looking excellent for her rebounds. Considering she’s only snagged 6+ rebounds in three games in July, this line looks solid.