The Mercury continues their five-game road trip with a stop in Indy. Despite a rough start in New York, the Mercury managed to beat the Dream on Sunday, but the Fever, even without Clark, are dangerous. After a couple of good wins over New York and Chicago, they have shown they can compete at the highest levels in this league. This should be an excellent matchup!
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Caitlin Clark Out
It’s been an impressive comeback for Indiana since the start of the season. Even with Clark missing several games already, this team has come together without her. Kelsey Mitchell, in particular, has stepped up as the leading scoring option. She’s been electric in the last couple of games and should have another solid night against the Mercury. Pairing her with Boston, who has scaled back her scoring role but has been excellent on the boards, shows the team’s strength. They’re also deep, with players like Lexie Hull coming off the bench to provide some extra scoring punch. Overall, this team doesn’t seem quite ready to compete for a title, but they’re definitely on that path.
As for the Mercury, this team looks ready to compete for a title again. They’re just a well-constructed, tough group to face. With Sabally leading the front court with Alyssa Thomas beside her, this team boasts some of the league's best scoring. They set the standard for what it takes to be a successful team in the league. However, they’re not quite at their peak yet. It feels like they lack an X-factor. They’re a team built to be good, not great, but that still makes them dangerous. They’re solid in almost every aspect on the court. It will take a lot of things going right for the Fever to have a chance tonight.
The matchup between these teams is interesting. The Fever have great size in the post to hold back the Mercury frontcourt and a solid perimeter defense as well. This might be a challenging scoring day for the Mercury in general. Especially with how Mitchell has been playing lately for the Fever, I’m leaning towards them tonight. With home-court advantage, a solid offense, and a little more momentum, that will probably be enough to win the game. That’s why I’m going with the Indy moneyline, the over on the 167 points total, and the Fever +3 spread.
Money line: PHO (-166) / IND (+140)
Total Points: 167
Spread: -3 PHO (-115) / +3 IND (-105)
Thomas has caught fire lately. She’s been hot with her shot volume increasing, earning a pair of back-to-back games with over 20 points. It seems like after the All-Star break, the Mercury are relying on her much more as a primary scorer, which I expect to continue. The Fever do have a solid defense, but even against them, Thomas should see a good amount of on-ball action.
What a streak Mitchell has been on. She’s been dominant throughout July while continuing to keep this team stable. She’s scored 20 or more points in all but three of her games this month. Especially with Clark still out, her shot volume keeps leading the team. Averaging over 20 attempts per game in the last three, she’s expected to have a heavy workload against the Mercury today as well.
Cunningham has been a solid role player for the Fever this year. She’s seen plenty of action with Clark out too, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game. However, her rebounding totals continue to stay consistently below 5. Going against the Mercury isn’t going to help that issue either, as their front court is not one to miss boards. I don’t think Cunningham will take a leap tonight.