The break is over as these teams buckle in for the rest of the WNBA season. With each game mattering a little more, the Dream will have their work cut out against the Mercury. We’ll see if they can pull off the upset in Phoenix tonight or if this Mercury hot streak climbs even higher.
Rhyne Howard Out
Monique Akoa Makani Out
Kalani Brown Probable
The W is back, and The Dream are already playing a back-to-back. On the road again tonight after a loss in Vegas to the Aces, The Dream are right in the mix. After starting off the season hot, things have cooled off a bit, going 4-6 in their last 10 games. With Howards out for the rest of July, things aren’t getting any easier either. Their scoring has slipped, as they’re gradually slipping down the average points per game list, now sitting just below Phoenix.
For Phoenix, this is just another day. This team continues to thrive as they keep building massive win streaks. However, they’re starting from zero today after a loss to the Lynx right before the All-Star break. The talent on this team is undeniable, though. Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper have been dominant on both ends of the court.
This matchup is going to be close, I think. Not many teams have a front court that can stand against the Dream, but Phoenix is the exception. With forwards who can move down low and spread the floor, it could be challenging for the Dream to work with their bigs. Griner will either be the solution or the problem tonight, depending on how much damage she can do on offense. The Dream will need her to fight and scrap down low to generate some extra offense to bridge the gap between these teams. Since the Mercury are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league, if Griner isn’t contributing on offense, she’ll likely be benched. If that happens, I have my doubts about the Dream’s chances tonight. The Mercury have a unique ability to spread teams out and turn size into a weakness. I expect them to continue this trend tonight, which is why I’m picking them to win.
Money line: ATL (+245) / PHO (-305)
Total Points: 164
Spread: +7.5 ATL (-108) / -7.5 PHO (-112)
Before her All-Star appearance last weekend, Jones had been a little struggle to grab boards. With a competitive front court full of size, Atlanta’s rebounding is a bit more collective than other teams. With Jones facing another strong front court on the Mercury, I can see her struggles continuing tonight.
Canada has been entirely capable of surpassing 12 points, but consistency is her biggest challenge. She dropped 30 points against the Fever a few weeks ago, but since then, she hasn’t exceeded this total. In fact, she has only gone over this line four times this year. Even with Howard out tonight, I don’t think we’ll see Canada get the time she needs to hit this line.
Even though Thomas has been one of the best playmakers in the league this year, 9.5 is just too high. She’s reached that total eight times this season, which is already impressive, but most of those nights were against teams like the Wings and Sky, so the competition wasn’t as tough. Against stronger teams like the Dream, she’s been averaging closer to 7 or 8 assists. Even with the -140 on this line, I think the under is a safe bet.