The Aces are back in New York to face the Liberty tonight. The Liberty managed to start the Aces off with a loss this year, but now it’s time for Vegas to bounce back. With the Liberty slumping over the last couple of weeks, they’re no longer the juggernaut they started out as. This should be a close game, with two of the best in Wilson and Stewart, battling it out!
Megan Gustafson Questionable
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
Isabelle Harrison Questionable
Jonquel Jones Out
Annika Soltau Out
With Vegas on the road tonight, they’ll face a tough challenge. The Liberty started the year off great, but since their strong beginning, they’ve cooled off a lot. Starting 9-0, they’ve now fallen to 12-8. A few injuries and tough competition have caused some of those losses, but it’s also shown teams like the Aces that they can beat them too.
The Aces have had a mixed season overall. They’ve underperformed slightly, but after losing Plum in the off-season, expectations are about what you’d expect. Wilson continues to light up the court, and players like Jackie Young have also stepped up. However, they’re just a middle-of-the-road team. They’re not truly elite in any field this year, with averages ranking middle or bottom for most major stats. That’s not to say they’re terrible; it’s just that the team is inconsistent. You’ll see a night where they beat the Mercury on the road, then another where they score just 54 points against Indiana. Wilson is the team’s anchor, and you can expect her to average around 20 points a game, but it’s the backcourt shooting that causes issues. Some nights, this core can hit from beyond the arc and dominate, others, they’re lucky just to hit the backboard. Overall, Vegas is the type of team that can surprise you, but they probably won’t do it twice in a row.
The Liberty, on the other hand, is the most consistent team so far. They’ve been especially lethal on offense. They’re leading the league in points per game and ranking high in most other stats. They can shoot, they can drive, they can pass, and they can score down low — this offense is one of the most formidable in the league. However, their three-point shooting has been crucial. In games where they’re shooting poorly, the offense slows significantly, especially against teams with size. Overall, it comes down to the playmaking on this team. When their shots aren’t falling, the ball stops moving effectively, which leads to more turnovers. It’s a feedback loop they’ve been stuck in lately.
Even with those issues, the Liberty still seem like the better team. They’ve been solid at times this year, and based on where the Aces are, I don’t think they’ll find much success on the road tonight. That's why I have to go with the Liberty moneyline, the under on the 166 points total, and the -5 spread on New York.
Money line: LVA (+180) / NYL (-218)
Total Points: 166
Spread: +5 LVA (-108) / -5 NYL (-112)
When there is a Wilson line, it’s hard not to take the over. At 22.5 points, though, that’s at the upper end of what she’s posting night to night. Still, in her first game against the Liberty, she scored 31 points in New York. The biggest part of this line will be Wilson’s free throw attempts. She’s always been great at getting to the line, but she’ll need at least 8 attempts tonight, which I think she’ll be right on track for. Overall, this line is a bit of a toss-up, but I think the over has a little more juice.
This line is all about volume for Sabrina. She’s been a solid perimeter shooter this year in batches, and she’s currently on a hot streak. She’s hit the over on the last three games, and her shot volume from three is trending in the right direction. If she can at least get to 7 attempts, she’ll be in good shape; if it gets all the way up to 10 or 11, she’s looking excellent. That’s well within her wheelhouse too.
As impressive as Stewart has been this season, the team around her has also really excelled. Especially in rebounding, many hands go up for the ball after each shot, which can reduce Stewart’s stats. Going against Wilson down low will likely increase the risk of foul trouble and give an elite offensive rebounder a chance to take away Stewart’s opportunities. Considering she’s only hit the over on this line six times all season, the under looks very appealing!