Dallas Wings at the Phoenix Mercury, July 7: Breakdown, Predictions, and Prop Bets

Wings Aim to Soar Above Mercury Despite Key Injuries
Can the Wings steal another for the Mercury?
Can the Wings steal another for the Mercury?
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The Wings have been flying lately. Going 5-2 over their last seven games, this group is looking like a real team. Still their record doesn’t really show it, sitting at just 6-13 on the season, the Mercury have a massive lead over Dallas. Sitting at 12-6, they’ve been one of the most competitive groups in the W this year. We’ll see how the Wings can fair on the road against them tonight.

Wings Injuries:

  • DiJonai Carrington Out 

  • Arike Ogunbowale Out 

  • Maddy Siegrist Out 

  • Tyasha Harris Out 

Mercury Injuries:

  • Lexi Held Out

  • Satou Sabally Out 

  • Kahleah Cooper Out 

Matchup Breakdown 

The series between these two teams is tied 1-1. The Wings earned their first win against the Mercury on Thursday in a blowout. The Wings were hot from three and simply outshot the Mercury. However, in their first game against each other, the shoe was on the other foot with the Mercury hitting 42% of their threes. This game will probably come down to the same thing though—perimeter shooting.

For the Wings to take this one, it’s going to be A, shooting, but B, rebounding. They’ve held an advantage in rebounding in both of the games this year. It’s been a solid reason why they’ve managed to keep up in the total number of shots against the Mercury despite their better defense. Overcoming their defense is going to be another challenge. They’re elite at stripping the ball away, which makes it difficult for a rookie like Paige. If Paige and Carrington can keep their turnovers to a minimum, that will go a long way in cutting into the Mercury’s transition offense, where they thrive. Getting them into a set half-court offense where they can’t turn things into a foot race will be ideal. 

For the Mercury, this is going to be an uphill battle with Sabally out tonight. She was a major part of winning that first game against the Wings as the leading scorer. She’s been incredible this year and a real force for the Mercury’s offense. With her out, there is a clear hole on both ends of the court that the Mercury haven’t figured out how to close. That doesn’t mean they’ll be pushovers by any means. This team can still shoot, and if they improve compared to their last game, they’ll keep it much tighter. Thomas needs to be the one to step up into the void, though. This is her team with Sabally out, and we’ll need to see her effort double tonight to keep things in line. 

Either way, I still believe the Wings will win again tonight. They’ve been firing on all cylinders as this team begins to take shape. If they can rally behind Paige and get another great game from her, they’ll probably walk away with the win! That's why I’m going with the Wings moneyline, the over on 164.5 points, and the Dallas spread at +6. 

Betting Lines (DraftKings)

  • Money line: PHO (-250) / DAL (+205) 

  • Total Points: 164.5 

  • Spread: -6 PHO (-110) / +6 DAL (-110) 

Moneyline Prediction: Wings Wins

Total Points Prediction:Over 164.5 

Spread Prediction: +6 DAL

Top Prop Bets 

Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 Points (-120) 

Bueckers has been excelling in scoring. She’s averaging nearly 19 points a game and has been on a hot streak lately. Since returning from injury in early June, she’s been averaging over 20 points per game. Since then, she’s been a consistent scorer, dropping 35 and 23 points in the last games she’s played against Phoenix. I expect big things from her again tonight. 

Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 Points (-115) 

Thomas has struggled against the Wings lately. With a game on Thursday against them and another in June, she didn’t come close to this line. In general, she’s been hit or miss with her scoring, but lately, it’s been more misses. With the line set at 15.5, the under looks much safer.

Li Yueru Over 5.5 Rebounds (-154) 

Since landing in Dallas, Yueru has been dominating on the boards. Her season stats might not be spectacular, but in her seven games in Dallas, she’s nearly averaging 10 rebounds a game. However, she tends to rebound in bursts, grabbing 11 one night and then just 3 another. In the Wings' last games against the Mercury, she did manage to snag 11, making the 5.5 line seem downright generous. 

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