The Storm are headed east to face the Dream. On the road, the Storm have been surprisingly good. However, after a tough loss in Golden State, this team looks vulnerable. Not everything has been peachy for the Dream either. They’ve hit a few bumps over the last few games as well. We’ll see who can right the ship tonight and keep rising with the tide.
Rhyne Howard Questionable
Lexie Brown Out
Katie Lou Samuelson
With both of these teams near the top of the standings, this is a crucial game to win. The Dream managed to beat the Storm in their first matchup, but since then, we’ve seen significant growth from Seattle. However, playing the Dream at home is never easy. They defeated the Liberty on Sunday and nearly beat the Lynx as well, taking the game to OT. They truly deserve their spot at the top.
The Storm needs to attack downhill effectively again. Behind Diggins, they’ve been consistent this year. Overall, this group has shot well, hitting 45% from the field collectively. They even shot 50% in their last game against the Dream, but the Dream still managed to outscore them. The biggest issue in that first game was threes. Not that they weren’t hitting them, but the shot volume. The Dream took nearly three times the number of three-pointers as the Storm. That’s not necessarily the Storm’s fault; it’s just not their style, but it still holds them back. They’ll need to increase their three-point attempts or hit a much higher percentage than last year. They only shot 27%, but are shooting 35% on the season. If they can get their three-point volume closer to the 20 attempts, they should have a good chance of winning this game.
For the Dream, this will be a challenge with Howard out. She was a force in that first game against the Storm, scoring 33 points alongside Gray’s 28. The duo dominated the Storm’s defense. With one part of the pair sidelined, they’ll need to find someone in the rotation to step up. Jones is the next player up on this team. She’s already performed well, but her consistent offense from the post will be crucial tonight. The Storm aren’t easy inside, but this is definitely an area where Atlanta’s offense can take advantage.
Overall, this game is a tough one to call. But with Howard sidelined, I’m not sure the Dream can survive without her on offense. The Storm will be able to attack Gray now much more easily on the perimeter, and then clog the paint to slow down the Dream’s post game. So that’s why I’m going with the Storm’s moneyline, the under on the 158.5 point total, and the Seattle spread at -2.
Money line: SEA (-125) / ATL (+105)
Total Points: 158.5
Spread: -2 SEA (-112) / +2 ATL (-108)
Diggins has been rock solid for us on the over. She’s not often a big breakout scorer, but she’s been consistent this year. She’s able to create her own shot and doesn’t rely on the three to drop to get her points. As a downhill threat, she’ll be a challenge for the Dream to stop. Considering she’s only missed 18+ points a handful of times this season, and is averaging 18.9 points a game, the over looks like the no-brainer tonight.
Ogwumike has been solid this season, averaging 17 points a game, but recently she’s slowed down a bit. After a streak of games in the 20s, she has fallen short of this line in her last three games. With a few games before her hot streak under this number, she’ll probably be around this number by the final whistle. However, going against this Atlanta frontcourt won’t be easy, and at 35, the wear of the season might start to show on Ogwumike.
Even though Jones is leading the team in rebounds this season, the Dream are excellent at team rebounding. They have several players near or above 6 boards a game, with Jones averaging just shy of 8 a game. Looking back at the last time she faced Seattle in May, she only finished with 5 boards total. Considering the Storm has only been on the upswing since then, I think Jones is going to struggle to reach 8 boards tonight.