Fresh off their victory in the Commissioner’s Cup, the Fever are back at it, taking on the Aces in Indy. They managed to dominate the Lynx on Tuesday, but with Clark back on the bench, the Aces will be tricky opponents. They’ve struggled a bit this year, but with A’ja Wilson knocking on the door, you can’t take this team lightly. We’ll see if the Fever can keep up their streak or if the Aces take the wind out of their sails.
Caitlin Clark Out
Damiris Dantas Out
Megan Gustafson Doubtful
These teams have been fairly evenly matched this season. Both sitting near a 500 record, they have the talent to compete against anyone in the league. The Fever convincingly beat the Lynx on Tuesday in the finals of the Commissioner’s Cup. It’s only a matter of time before one or both of these teams get into a rhythm and go on a streak.
For the Aces tonight, they’ve had a bit of luck with Clark sidelined again. That gives the Aces some relief, but we’ve seen the Fever tighten up into a strong team even without Clark. Still, the Aces beat the Fever in Vegas with Clark playing. In that game, the Aces dominated by getting to the line at will. The game ended with the Aces taking 21 free throws and the Fever only 9. That kind of disparity isn’t a coincidence; it’s the game plan, which I expect them to stick with tonight. Expect Wilson and Young to battle in the paint to get to the line. They’ve done well with this strategy, but it can be unpredictable depending on the officiating crew. Either way, expect the Aces to go all-in in the paint tonight.
The Fever are no strangers to battling inside either. They’re tough to keep out of the paint with Boston playing down low and a team of guards spread out across the floor. In their last game against the Aces, they actually won the paint battle on paper, but when you include free throws, you can see where they fell behind. The biggest advantage the Fever will have tonight is those guards on the perimeter. Lexie Hull and Kelsey Mitchell will need to hit their shots tonight. If they can draw the defense out with effective shooting, the Fever should be able to build a lead. It’s been a bit inconsistent with them, but Hull has been effective at times this season.
Overall, this looks like a close game. I believe the Fever have shown enough recently to earn my trust. Even without Clark, they’ve demonstrated resilience and depth. I don’t think the Aces will be able to keep up. Especially if the Fever can avoid fouling too much tonight to reduce the free-throw advantage, they should stay competitive. They only lost by 7 points in the last game, despite that large FT disparity. So, I’m backing the Fever moneyline, betting the Over on the 163 points total, and taking the +4.5 Indiana Spread.
Money line: LVA (-192) / IND (+160)
Total Points: 163
Spread:-4.5 LAV (-110) / +4.5 IND (-110)
Wilson has been dominating the paint again this year, sitting as the second-highest per-game scorer in the league at 21 points a game. However, with the line set at 22.5, she may struggle to push above that. She’s been right on this line for the last 5 games, and managed to go over last time she played the Fever, by only a point. Looking at the rest of her game log, and the forward she’ll have to get through on Indy, I think she’ll struggle to reach that again tonight.
Mitchell has really emerged as the leading scorer with Clark in and out of the lineup this season. She is actually leading the team in scoring at just under 19 points a game. With Clark out again tonight, expect Mitchell to lead the charge on offense. Looking beyond the Commissioner Cup win on Tuesday, which turned into a blowout, Mitchell has gone over this line in her last five games. Against the Aces, this over is looking extremely tempting.
Boston has been a difficult player to predict this year. She’s been inconsistent, but things seem to be stabilizing. Her rebounding stats are solid, and against Wilson, they’ll need Boston’s size in the paint tonight. As long as she can avoid fouling, she should be in a great position to secure some rebounds. Considering she’s gone about 50/50 hitting the over in the past 10 games, and she made it in her last game against the Aces, the over looks good tonight.