It’s the Commissioner’s Cup final today, with the Lynx facing off against the Fever. It’s been a long journey to reach this point, but tonight will show us who claims the first trophy of the season. Since this game is in Minnesota, the Fever will have an uphill battle, especially with Clark’s health being uncertain, making things even more difficult. We’ll see if the Lynx can keep their hot streak alive and take home the 2025 Commissioner’s Cup.
Caitlin Clark Questionable
Damiris Dantas Out
Karlie Samuelson Out
This is it. The Commissioner’s Cup ends tonight. We saw a great run from the Lynx and a somewhat surprising one from the Fever. Considering the injury issues and the makeup of this team, I’m a bit surprised to see them all the way in the finals. But with a growing team of young stars, this should be an excellent opportunity for the entire roster to take a leap against the Lynx.
This will be a tough matchup for the Fever. The Lynx have been dominating everyone all season. With only two losses, they’ve been formidable behind Collier all year. She’s leading the league in points per game at 24.4, nearly 3 more than A’ja Wilson. She’s overwhelming her opponents with effective shooting too. She shoots 52% from the field, nearly 40% from three, and 94% from the free-throw line. Collier is unstoppable on both ends of the court, averaging over three Stocks a game on defense. But she’s not the only one excelling on this team. Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams have been exceptional in the backcourt. They’ve made this offense almost unbeatable with their scoring pressure from outside. Overall, this team is one of the most complete rosters in the WNBA. That doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten though.
The Fever haven’t been nearly as dominant. However, for a young group, they’re already ahead of the curve. Sitting at 8-8 on the season, it’s been a rocky start. They haven’t been able to string many wins together recently, but things are starting to even out a little. With Mitchell taking over in Caitlin’s absence, they’ve found some success already. With Clark questionable again, this game might hinge on her availability. They’ll need her ability to spread the court and create to be able to slice into this Lynx defense. Offense is about the only way they’re going to win this game though. They have the scoring talent to keep up with Minnesota, but not the defense. They’ll have to keep this game fast, work in transition, and not allow the Lynx D to get set. They managed to do this against the Liberty about a month ago where Clark went off for 32. They’re going to need a similar performance from her tonight!
Overall, this is going to be a David versus Goliath type of game. The Lynx are the top team in the WNBA for a reason, and the Fever are the up-and-comers. This is a game the Lynx should win nine out of ten times, but there is always a chance for the upset. However, betting-wise, I’m sticking with the Lynx moneyline tonight, the over on the 164.5 points total, and Indiana with the spread at +6.5.
Money line: IND (+220) / MIN (-270)
Total Points: 164.5
Spread: +6.5 IND (-112) / -6.5 MIN (-108)
Collier continues to dominate not only in Minnesota but throughout the entire league. Averaging 24.4 points per game, she’s been unstoppable this season. She’s surpassed this line in 9 of her 13 games, with most of the lower scores due to blowouts where she was pulled early. Since this is the final cup game, I don’t expect her to be pulled early tonight at all.
Boston has been on a roll lately. She recently had a three-game streak where she scored consistently in the 20s. She’s already increased her points per game to 15.9, hitting the over in four of the last five games. The Lynx are a strong team, but Boston has challenged some tough post players recently and has come out ahead. Especially if Clark remains questionable, Boston looks like a great pickup.
Smith might not have the highest per-game rebounding numbers, but in June, she was actually solid. Late in June, she hit the 5.5 over 6 times out of 10, with her trending upward at the end of the month. Sharing most of the rebounding duties with Collier, as the season has gone on, I think Smith is gradually taking on more of her workload. This is a really solid line at +120.
Clark is uncertain for this game, but she’s consistently hitting the over when she does play. I’d say it’s a smart move to take either way because if she sits, the bet is void, and if she plays, she’s likely to hit it. She’s dealing with a groin injury, which shouldn’t affect her passing much either. Overall, it’s a solid value pick if you’re looking for some extra potential.