The Liberty is taking on the Mercury in Phoenix in the premier game of the evening. With both of these teams near the top of the league, this is going to be a true battle for supremacy. With their last game coming down the wire in New York, we’ll see if the Liberty can bounce back from that loss, and even up the series 1-1 tonight!
Jonquel Jones Out
Leonie Fiebich Out
Annika Soltau Out
Lexi Held Out
The Mercury has been on fire lately, with a nearly identical record to the Liberty now. Currently riding a five-game win streak, this will be an extremely tough matchup for the Liberty. They've been solid all year, but a few injuries have impacted them, making every player crucial.
This game is going to be a defensive battle from start to finish. The Mercury have gained prominence this season mainly because of their stifling defense. It seems like everyone on this team is a strong defender, with them leading the league in steals per game. The only team close to them is the Liberty, who also have several defensive-minded players. Success here will depend on the small details, as scoring opportunities will be hard to find.
The Mercury will need to rely on their veterans tonight. They’re a reliable team, but Sabally must hit her shots. She’s been vital to this winning streak, and her ability to spread the floor is crucial. The main focus of this game will be rebounding. That was the edge the Mercury had in their last game against the Liberty, when they out-rebounded them by 10. That helped them overcome a poor shooting night and steal the victory on the road.
For the Liberty, this game will focus on ball security. They had 20 turnovers in their last game, which was unexpectedly high. They’re one of the better teams at protecting the ball, averaging only 14 turnovers per game. But this highlights how disruptive the Mercury's defense can be. However, if they can be more competitive on the boards and improve their ball security, they should stay competitive.
Overall, this game should be close. With the lines so tight, it’s hard to see much value on either side, but I believe the Liberty will come out on top. So I’m going to pick the Liberty moneyline, the over on 168 points, and the Liberty +1.5 spread.
Money line: NYL (+105) / PHO (-125)
Total Points: 168
Spread: +1.5 NYL (-110) / -1.5 PHO (-110)
Sabrina was solid in the last game against the Mercury. Even though her shot wasn’t falling, she managed to get to the line at will. If her shot improves even slightly, she’ll be right on top of this line. After some massive scoring nights earlier in the month, I think she’ll be right back in it tonight.
This isn’t going to be an easy night for Sabally inside. The Liberty’s interior defense is no joke. Considering her scoring has already been down, Sabally could be in for another rough night. She hasn’t hit this over in the last three games as her three-point shot has fallen off a cliff. We’ll see if she can find her shot again, but leaning towards the under is looking fairly promising.
Stewart has been dominant on the boards in recent games, but tonight I think she might struggle a bit. With Sabrina back in the lineup, the competition for rebounds is even more intense, and facing Phoenix’s frontcourt, Stewart could have her hands full defensively. We’ve also seen her go under this total; she’s only hit the over 6 times this season. With the plus odds on the under, it looks like a solid bet.