We’ll see an exciting game tonight with the Fever facing the Wings for the first time this season. This match could be tough for the Fever, especially since they're on the back end of a back-to-back. Although the Wings haven't been a strong team this year, they remain dangerous at home. We’ll find out if the Fever can bounce back after a tough loss last night to the Sparks or if the Wings will add another win to their record.
Caitlin Clark Questionable
Damiris Dantas Out
DiJanai Carrington Doubtful
Maddy Siegrist Out
Luisa Geiselsoder Out
Yasha Harris Out
Teaira McCowan Out
Dallas has struggled all season; they’ve only scratched together 4 wins this year. However, things appear to be turning around in Dallas as they’ve gone 3-2 in their last five games. The team is starting to gain some momentum, while the Fever continues to face injuries and inconsistency.
The Fever have been in a strange limbo this season. With Caitlin, they’re a solid team but not necessarily elite. When she’s sidelined, though, they struggle to find any rhythm. Nothing exemplifies this better than their poor game against the Sparks yesterday. They were dominated in that game, losing by 10, with nothing clicking. Their three-point shooting wasn’t falling, and without that, their offense fell apart. They couldn’t get Boston going, and without her scoring inside, it wasn’t happening. But that just sums up this team. They’re inconsistent and limited without Clark. When Clark is on the floor, the team tends to follow her lead, for better or worse. We’ve seen players like Kelsey Mitchell succeed while Clark struggles, but she’s pretty much the only one. That’s just what happens with a team that relies on young talent. Sometimes it all looks great, other times it’s terrible.
For the Wings, it’s not that different. The team is young and on the rebound, but lately, things seem more stable. We’ve seen Ogunbowale and Bueckers working well together. With a few injuries shrinking the roster, the starters are getting a lot of minutes on the floor. The defense, in particular, has improved, with the Wings holding the Dream to only 55 points in their last game. Overall, this group is starting to make more sense.
Regarding the matchup, it will all come down to how well the Fever shoot the three. It’s been inconsistent, but if Caitlin is playing, things could level out a bit. She creates space and moves the ball effectively, which makes a big difference for this offense. It’s a little difficult to predict how the Wings will handle that, but if they can win the rebounding battle, they’ll be in good shape. They’ll need to rely on Li Yueru again tonight to secure the rebounds. Either way, I expect this game to be close. However, I believe the Wings have the edge tonight. With Caitlin’s health uncertain, home court advantage, and the Fever coming off a back-to-back, the Wings should win. That's why I’m backing the Wings moneyline, taking the under on 168.5 points, and giving the Wings +2.5 points.
Money line: IND (-148) / DAL (+124)
Total Points: 168.5
Spread: -2.5 IND (-115) / +2.5 DAL (-105)
At 18 points to hit the over, this isn’t necessarily an easy line for Bueckers. She’s been close fairly consistently, though, averaging 17.7 points a game. Luckily for her game too, she’s not overly reliant on her jump shot to score. A three here and there helps, but her game is attacking the basket. If she can convert efficiently or at least get to the line a few times, 18 should be within her reach.
Even with Clark questionable, the under on her points looks solid. Although she’s had her standout moments, the 20-point line hasn’t been consistent for Clark. She’s been hit over 5 times this season, including some big games. Considering she’ll be returning from injury if she plays tonight, those scoring troubles could continue if she’s a step slow.
These Boston lines keep creeping up. Now sitting at 8.5, I still think the over looks decent, especially with the Wings suffering a few injuries. Since the end of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, Boston has been dominating on the boards. She’s only had one game under 9 rebounds, finishing with 8. If she can stay out of foul trouble and hit at least the 30-minute mark in playing time, she should have a good chance to hit.