The Liberty are on the road again today as they get deeper into this four-game road trip. They're stopping by Golden State tonight to take on the Valkyries for the third time this season. They managed to beat them twice already this season, but can they do it on the road now? We’ll see, as the Valkyries continue to improve, finally climbing to a plus-500 record at 7-6 on the season. This should be a tight coast-to-coast battle tonight!
Carla Leite Out
Sabrina Lonescu Probable
Jonquel Jones Out
Leonie Fiebich Out
Annika Soltau Out
The Liberty’s shine has faded slightly as their undefeated streak through 9 games has resulted in three losses after 13 games. Having lost to Seattle, Indiana, and Phoenix, they’ve faced tough competition lately, which makes this team seem less unbeatable. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t worthy of their top spot in the league. They’re still a dangerous team with plenty of talent, even after a few setbacks.
The Valkyries, on the other hand, are just happy to be in the mix. Being the first year of the franchise, no one expected much, and certainly not an above-500 team. This group has worked hard to come together over the last few months, and it’s starting to take shape. Thornton has taken the lead as the primary scorer, while other names like Salaun, Burton, and Fagbenie have filled out nicely around her. The most surprising of the bunch has to be Janelle Salaun. She’s been an effective two-way player, hitting threes, rebounds, and just generally being invaluable.
Overall, though, the Valkyries are still fighting an uphill battle in this one. They’ll be outgunned at almost every position. Even with home-court advantage, the Liberty team is dominating, especially with Sabrina likely to play. The best chance for the Valkyries in this game is to keep it low-scoring. If they can slow down the pace, stop the Liberty from moving in transition, and keep the score around 85 points, they’ll have a shot. That’s a big ask given the number of offensive weapons the Liberty have. Still, we’ve seen the Valkyries pull off a couple of impressive upsets at home, like against the Fever and the Storm.
On the other hand, the Liberty mainly just needs to shut down Thornton. She’s been the centerpiece of the offense and the key to keeping the scoreboard moving. If they can apply pressure on her and force the rest of the team to compensate for the scoring gap, they’ll struggle. Beyond that, they just need to attack the paint and hope their threes are falling. Even if they can’t completely shut down Thornton, if they’re hitting threes, they’ll probably pull away with this one. That’s why I’m leaning toward the Liberty on the moneyline, the over on the 161 points total, and the +9.5 spread for Golden State.
Money line: NYL (-440) / GSV (+340)
Total Points: 161
Spread: -9.5 NYL (-112) / +9.5 GSV (-108)
Thornton continues to rise on this team as she gets more comfortable. Her scoring has really picked up, averaging 17 points in June. She’s been the consistent scorer this newly formed team has needed, and I expect her to do it again tonight. Even though the Liberty are one of the best defenses in the league, 15 points for Thornton seems very doable. She’s only missed that line twice this month and not at all over her last six games.
Stewart has been outstanding over the past month, averaging 22 points per game. That was boosted a bit by a 35-point performance against the Mercury last Thursday, but she’s still been elite. Looking back at the two other games they’ve played against Golden State, Stewart finished with 27 and 24 points on excellent shooting. The Valkyries don’t have much to stop her at the rim, either giving up an easy basket or sending her to the line. The over looks solid again tonight, even with the Liberty on the road.
Cloud has been stepping up as the playmaker lately, finishing her last two games with 10 and 8 assists. Especially with Sabrina having a rough patch with turnovers, Cloud has been the more reliable option recently. Looking back at the last two games against the Valkyrie, she hit the line with 10 assists in one game and fell below the next with 5. With the line set at 6.5, it’s a tough call, but with the even odds and the way Cloud has been playing lately, my gut says to lean on the over.