We have a rematch between Seattle and Vegas tonight. With the series between these two teams already split 1-1, this game is critical for both teams sitting in the middle of the standings. As Vegas struggles, this is a must-win game to get back on track, but with A’ja Wilson's availability uncertain, this could be an uphill battle. We’ll see if Seattle can extend their lead in the standings or if Vegas can make up some crucial ground!
A’ja Wilson Questionable
Megan Gustafson Out
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
Gabby Williams Questionable
Katie Lou Samuelson Out
We’ve already seen these teams clash a bit this year. With Seattle winning the first game and Vegas rallying to take the second, this will be the first game in Vegas. However, with A’ja Wilson still questionable for this game due to a concussion, it’s hard to predict how things will unfold. Vegas desperately needs everything that Wilson brings, yet the team has still fallen short. They’ve lost four of their last five games and have slipped below .500 on their record for the first time this year. Things are getting a little concerning in Vegas as this team struggles to find their identity.
Seattle, on the other hand, has continued to rise. After handing the Lynx their first loss of the season, they’ve looked like a true contender. Still, they’re not perfect either. This team lacks a superstar, but with a deep roster of reliable role players, they’ve been difficult to beat. Skylar Diggins continues to drive this team forward. Her ability to keep the ball moving downhill on offense while creating for herself and her teammates has united this offensive effort. It’s the versatility of this offense that makes them dangerous; they can score from anywhere on the court. Overall, the ceiling of this team seems limited in the long run, but as a regular season group, there are few teams I like more than the Storm.
This game is going to come down to A’ja. If she’s out, then I think the Storm will dominate the Aces. However, if she does end up playing and looks healthy, it could be a tight match. I still think the Storm have an edge, but it’s a much slimmer margin. Points in the paint will be the deciding factor, though. We’ve seen in their last two games that when Seattle attacks the rim through multiple players, they’re unstoppable. If the Aces can keep them out of the paint and beyond the arc, the Storm may struggle. For the Aces, it’s crucial to keep the game low-scoring and control the tempo. If they can slow this game to a crawl, they should take this one. I still believe that Seattle will win, though. With their more well-rounded roster and stable offense, they should maintain scoring pressure to overwhelm the Aces. So that’s why I’m going with the Storm moneyline, the under on the 160.5 points total, and the Seattle -1.5 point spread.
Money line: SEA (-125) / LVA (+105)
Total Points: 160.5
Spread: -1.5 SEA (-112) / +1.5 LAV (-108)
Diggins has maintained her solid performance with a brief but impressive game against the Sparks the other night. She only scored 15 points in that game, but when it turned into a blowout, she went to the bench. Outside of that game, she has consistently scored over 17 points, averaging 17.8 points this year. Especially with some injuries affecting the Aces and the possibility of not having Gabbey Williams alongside her, I could see Diggins taking on a significant workload tonight on the road.
Even as the best rebounder on Seattle, 9 boards seems a bit high. She’s only reached that number a handful of times this season, with her average being 8.2 per game. In both of her previous games against the Aces, she came close to exceeding this line, finishing with just 8 on both occasions. With only three out of twelve games yielding 9 or more boards, betting the under on this line looks promising.
Even though Young has been killing it lately, this line is a bit high going against the Storm. With a solid defensive backcourt, Young had some trouble against them in their two previous games. Scoring just 12 and 14 in those games, I feel good about the Storm holding her back again. Especially with Young’s average feels a little inflated recently due to some high-scoring games against the bottom teams in the league. Not saying she can’t do it, but the under is feeling much safer.