The Fever and Dream face each other for the third time this season. After splitting the last two games, the Fever will compete against the Dream without Clark for the first time. Even without her, they’ve managed to win their last two games, bringing their record to 4-4. With the Dream sitting just above them in the standings, we’ll see if the Fever can take them down and tie things up in the rankings.
Sophie Cunningham Out
Caitlin Clark Out
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough Probable
Naz Hillmon Questionable
Missing Clark again, the Fever have finally pulled themselves out of their slump to take down the Mystics and Sky. It’s not like either of those teams is a powerhouse, but they needed something. After a three-game losing streak with Caitlin out, the Fever’s young season was looking worrying. Now, they have a chance to even up their record with the Dream, who have been one of the stronger teams this season. We did, however, just see the Dream randomly drop a game to the Sun, which was bizarre, but that’s the W for ya.
Tonight should be an interesting bounce-back game for the Dream, though. They were carving out a nice little lead behind the Liberty, but a 1-6 Sun team took them out and left them firmly in the middle of the pack. With the Fever right on their heels, this game might be more than just a mid-season matchup; it could have long-term repercussions for the postseason down the line.
However, this is absolutely a game the Dream can win. They managed to beat the Fever when Clark was having incredible games, and their roster is well-balanced. They have a fantastic amount of size inside and solid guards to keep the perimeter dangerous. They’re one of the most challenging teams, but they’re beatable if the Fever can exploit a few things.
For the Fever to challenge the Dream in Atlanta tonight, they’ll need Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard to step up. When teams are able to win the points in the paint battle against the Dream, they’ve seen great success. If the bigs on the Fever can punish them inside with high-quality shots, they’ll give Indiana a significant advantage. That also means the guards will need to work the ball inside as well. Even with Lexie Hull and Kelsey Mitchell doing well outside, they’ll need to limit their three-point attempts. It’s all about finding the good shots, and against Atlanta, that means taking it inside.
For the Dream, they’ll need to focus on their interior defense. It’s a fairly simple recipe for this game: points in the paint. Whoever wins that battle will take the game. We have seen the Dream fall a bit in love with the three-ball recently, with some games featuring around 30 attempts. That’s not the worst thing, but it sends their scoring variance through the roof. All in all, I think the Dream will bounce back tonight. With Clark still out, the Fever are missing that secret sauce that makes everything work. So that’s why I’m going with the Dream moneyline, under 160.5 points, and the Indiana +5.5 spread.
Money line: IND (+180) / ATL (-218)
Total Points: 160.5
Spread: +5.5 IND (-115) / -5.5 ATL (-105)
Mitchell has been a reliable stopgap scorer with Clark still sidelined. She’s had a few strong scoring nights recently, but as the primary scoring option for the Fever right now, I think she’ll struggle against the Dream. She managed to score 24 and then 17 against the Dream this season, but in both games, she had Clark alongside her. With the line set at 18.5, the under looks appealing.
Gray has been lights out this season from beyond the arc. She’s hitting a 42% rate from three as she continues a strong early season run. Although she’s not always the most consistent with her number of attempts from beyond the arc, in both of the Dream’s games against the Fever this year, Gray has walked away with over 3 made threes.
Boston’s rebounding numbers have slowly dwindled over the last few games. We’ve seen them lean on their guards just a bit more, which has cut into Boston’s minutes, but against the Dream, I think they’ll need her size. She snagged 10 boards in their first game against the Dream and 7 in the second. The rebounding totals do seem a little high, but if she can get a long run in tonight’s game to counter the size of Griner and Jones, I think she’ll manage it.
Jones is actually in a similar position to Boston, but I think we’ll see the same outcome tonight. She dominated against the Fever on the boards last time with 13 and 11. Since those games, her minutes have rolled back slightly, cutting into those numbers. I expect to see them bounce back up, though, as they’ll need Jones to help attack the interior against the Fever.