The Valkyrie are making the short trip down to LA to take on the Sparks for the third time this season. This should be a close game with the series tied 1-1. With wins hard to come by for both teams, tonight could be a crucial victory to stabilize the season.
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Cameron Brink Out
Rae Burrell Out
Once again in this brief season, the Sparks and Valkyrie face off against each other. We’ve already seen some heroic performances in this series, notably a massive game from Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby. The Sparks have been the more intriguing team this season, even though they’re tied in wins with the Valkyrie. It’s challenging to pinpoint exactly where the Sparks have been faltering. The most glaring issue with this team has been their defense. They continuously allow other teams to score at least 80 points per game. Opponents have found ways to exploit them. Beyond that, the numbers for the Sparks are actually quite decent. They shoot well, rebound efficiently, and overall, two-thirds of their game looks excellent.
The Valkyrie aren’t quite as cohesive. Offensively, they’ve struggled to identify a true team leader. The scoring role has shifted between Thornton, Salaun, and Burton, but none have provided consistent support for the team. This isn’t too surprising, given that it’s the team’s first season together, and most of their game is still evolving. I do appreciate what I’ve seen at times. Defensively, they can be inconsistent, but they are at least capable of protecting the paint and forcing opponents into tough shots. In their last game, they held the Aces to under 70 points for their third win of the season. They were also able to run in transition during that game, which is crucial for their offense. With a 22-6 advantage in fast-break points against the Aces, that will be key tonight.
Overall, this matchup is going to come down to points in the paint. With how solid Hamby has been scoring, it will all be about the Valkyrie keeping up rather than stopping the Sparks. In their win against the Valkyrie, the Sparks dominated 40 to 22 in the paint while limiting the Valkyrie to just 9 fast-break points. However, in the Valkyrie’s win over the Sparks, they kept the points in the paint much closer while taking a slight lead in fast-break points. Really, we just ended up seeing the Valkyrie keep scoring. I think they’ll be able to do it, though. I like Thornton in the paint tonight, along with Salaun as the wild card. Even with this game on the road, the Valkyrie have been okay traveling, so expect it to stay close. That’s why I’m going with the Valkyrie moneyline, under on the 162.5 points total, and the Valkyrie spread at +6.5.
Money line: GSV (+225) / LAS (-278)
Total Points: 162.5
Spread: +6.5 GSV (-110) / -6.5 LAS (-278)
Plum hasn’t been as efficient recently. She started the year strong, with some high-scoring nights bringing her season average up to 21 points, but in the commissioner’s cup, things have changed. We’ve now seen her have three games in a row under 20 points with some poor shooting efficiency. Still averaging nearly 18 shot attempts a game, she’ll have the volume to hit the over, but I think she’s going to struggle against the Valkyries.
Thornton has become one of the more reliable rebounders on this Valkyrie team. Averaging over six boards a game, she has been consistent as well. She has recorded at least six boards in the majority of the Valkyries’ games. With her already playing significant minutes, tonight will be no different against a similarly matched Sparks squad. This will be a game they don’t want to lose, so expect Thornton to play at least 32 minutes again tonight.
Hamby continues to lead the Sparks down low. With the veteran carrying this team in post scoring, she’s already averaging nearly 18 points per game with consistent shooting. She’s hitting 52% of her shots and getting to the line an average of 7 times per game. Her size and skill in the post have made her a beast at picking up second chance points. Averaging nearly 3 offensive boards a game, she’s been excellent at securing rebounds while maintaining constant pressure at the rim. She should be able to hit 17 with ease tonight.