The Dream are back in Connecticut to take on the Sun. The Dream came out on top in that first matchup as the Sun continued to struggle early in the season. With the Dream cruising at the top of the standings right now, this will be an uphill battle all night for the Sun. We’ll see if they can pull off the upset on their home court!
Rayah Marshal Out
Bria Hartley Questionable
Lindsay Allen Out
Leila Lacan Out
None
This game is likely to be somewhat mismatched, with the Dream holding a 5-2 record while the Sun have managed to win only one game. They’ve struggled to find any scoring solutions and have had difficulty even reaching 70 points in their games. This team is clearly still in the rebuilding phase, but tonight could bring a little more energy than usual.
The Dream have been dominant, with the best aspect being the variety of offensive weapons they possess. Between Howard, Gray, Griner, and Jones, they have options everywhere. Rebounding has been their mainstay, keeping them afloat. They lead the league in rebounds per game at nearly 40. Jones and Griner are key to that success. Even though their shooting numbers are just average, their ability to limit second-chance points and thrive in transition has set them apart. We’ll see if they can maintain that for the rest of the season, but tonight, they shouldn’t face any issues. My only concern is their shooting numbers. We’ve seen nights where nothing goes in from range, which could allow the Sun to stay close. However, they are so effective inside that I can’t envision this game ending with the Dream losing.
For the Sun, it’s not hopeless, but this team simply isn’t constructed to compete with the Dream. Adding some injuries to the mix explains why things are falling apart early for them. They’re currently last in rebounding, second to last in three-point percentage and field goal percentage, and near the top in turnovers per game. It’s been a devastating stretch lately, and tonight isn’t the night it will suddenly change. So, I’m going with the Dream moneyline, the under on the 158 total score, and a -10.5 spread on the Dream.
Money line: ATL (-440) / CON (+340)
Total Points: 158
Spread: -10.5 ATL (-112) / +10.5 CON (-108)
Howard had an outstanding game against the Storm the other night, scoring 33 points. However, that hasn’t been the case in her last few games, including one against Connecticut, where she only managed 11 points. Howard will need her three-point shots to be falling, but averaging just 27% for the season so far makes it unlikely she’ll reach that tonight. With the line set at 17.5, the under looks quite appealing.
Mabrey has been up and down lately. Her shot continues to be inconsistent, as she’s averaging just 35% from the field right now. In her last game against the Dream, she struggled, only putting up 12 points while shooting 4-14. She’s only surpassed 15 points in three of her seven games so far, which makes the under look especially appealing.
Griner has struggled to remain on the court lately, with only 15 minutes on the court against the Storm. She’s been rebounding well, but if she’s not going to see the time on the court, I don’t think we’ll see her cross over the 7 rebound mark. I’d stick with the under tonight.
We’ve seen Gray have a couple of nice nights shooting the three-ball. She made three threes the other night against the Storm and is already averaging 2.9 made threes per game this season. The shot volume is the only concerning part of this line. She averages between 10 to 2 attempts per game from beyond the arc. If she can at least get up 7 attempts, which is significant, she’ll be in a great position to hit this line.