We’re back again after just under a week, and we get to see the Mystics take on the Liberty once again. With the first game being anything but close, we’ll find out if the Mystics can turn it around against the undefeated champs. It’s going to be an uphill battle, but we’ll see if the Mystics can overcome and hand the Liberty their first loss of the season.
Georgia Ammore
Nyara Sabally Out
We’ve seen the Liberty continue their dominance this season after a stellar postseason run. They have one of the most complete rosters in the league, riding the hot hand of Sabrina Ionescu, who has been unstoppable over the last couple of games after a slow start. She’s excelled both inside and out. However, it’s the defense of this team that has really stolen the show. They’ve allowed only one team to score 80 points against them while averaging nearly 90 points themselves. The scoring disparity has been incredible, as teams can't win on either side of the ball.
For the Mystics, this has been a problem. It wasn’t even close in their last game losing by over 20. That’s not a huge surprise considering this team is still rebuilding, but wow, I thought they could have kept it a little closer. However, when you’re playing against a defense that can hold a team to under 30% shooting from the field, it’s hard to do much. For the Mystics to have any chance in this game, they’re going to need to find better shots. They actually outshot the Liberty in their last game 74 to 68, which was a bit surprising. If they can gain that advantage again and keep the focus on the paint like they normally do, they should be able to keep it close. The Mystics just aren’t a three-point team, which can make it challenging against a team like the Liberty. They’re only taking about 15 threes a game on average and prefer to attack the paint. That strategy has earned them a few wins, but they’ll need to somehow create more space for it to work against the Liberty.
The Liberty, on the other hand, just need to keep the scoring pressure high and pack the paint. It’s not a challenging formula for success against the Mystics. The rebounding battle is really the only thing that matters against them. If the Liberty can win that, they should prevent the Mystics from getting second-chance points, which will essentially eliminate their offense.
Overall, it’s not hard to see why the Liberty are heavy favorites in this game. We just saw them win a week ago, and the Mystics still have deep flaws on offense. The Liberty have all the tools to turn this game into another blowout. So that’s why I’m going with the Liberty moneyline, under the 163.5 points spread, and the Liberty -13 spread.
Money line: NYL (-900) / WAS (+600)
Total Points: 163.5
Spread: -13 NYL (-110) / +13 WAS (-110)
This is an easy line as long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout like it did against the Sun. Sabrina has been outstanding as usual this season. She’s already averaging 18 points per game after a slow start. In her last game against the Mystics, she scored 28 points. With 18 points in 19 minutes against the Sun in their last game, I love the over at even odds tonight!
Jones continues to demonstrate excellence in post play, grabbing every rebound in sight. Last week against the Mystics, she recorded 18 boards. She has secured 11 or more rebounds in over half of their games this season, with two additional games at 10. With the Mystics' shooting percentage currently being dismal, expect to see plenty of gettable rebounds for Jones tonight!
I’ve got a soft spot for Iriafen; she’s been crushing it in her rookie year and has been a day one change for a roster that needed it. As a rookie, she’s already averaging 14 points and 10 rebounds per game. She had a 20-point performance in her last game against the Fever. I think this will be one of the last times we see a line this low for her points. She’s only fallen under 13 points three times this season, making this a fantastic line!