The Mystics are on their way to face the Fever in Indiana this time. After a loss in DC last time, the Fever are aiming to bounce back after a series of defeats have dropped them below 500 for the season. With Clark still out, this team is just trying to stay afloat.
Georgia Amoore Out
Sophie Cunningham Out
Caitlin Clark Out
We just saw this matchup a few days ago, with the Mystics beating the Fever. It was a fairly close game in terms of score, but the Mystics maintained control pretty much from the second quarter. Brittney Sykes was incredible as usual for the Mystics, scoring 21 points to lead the team. Most of her contributions came from the free-throw line, with her FG% being surprisingly disappointing at just 35%. Still, she managed to go 8-10 from the line to keep the Mystics afloat. That entire game was marked by the whistle, with a total of 52 free throws and over 50 fouls called. It was a physical game that honestly didn’t exactly showcase the best sides of either team.
The Fever continues to struggle with their shooting. Without Clark, they seem to lack direction as this core fights to find their rhythm. Shooting below 40% from the field against the Mystics, they really only found scoring success in the first quarter. After that, things slipped away as they struggled to keep pace. The only real bright spot in their last game against the Mystics was DeWanna Bonner off the bench. She led the team with 21 points and was about the only one besides Aliyah Boston to maintain any shot consistency. However, it might be challenging to ask the 37-year-old to perform like that again tonight. If they’re going to have a chance in the game tonight, they’re going to need more scoring from the guards. It has to be Kelsey Mitchell. She’s seen the most significant increase in workload with Clark out, and her shooting has sadly abandoned her. She’s hitting well below her career averages and hasn’t been able to assist the team from three-point range, despite averaging nearly 6 attempts a game. If Mitchell or Hull can’t get going from outside, and all of the offensive pressure falls back onto the post players, the Fever are going to have a tough time with this one.
The Mystics showed that they had a bit more in the tank than the Fever did the last time they matched up. Even without home court advantage this time, I think they’re in a better position than the Fever right now. With Iriafen and Citron contributing early alongside Sykes, I like the composition of this group. They’re constructed to attack down low without much reliance on the three-pointer. That might not be the most effective strategy in modern basketball, but I think it works against the Fever. I believe we’ll see the Mystics upset Indy at home and take a 2-0 lead in the season series. So that’s why I’m going with the Mystics moneyline, under 161.5 on the points total, and +6 Mystics spread.
Money line: WAS (+205) / IND (-250)
Total Points: 161.5
Spread: +6 WAS (-110) / -6 IND (-110)
Boston has been lighting it up over the last few games. She has been dominant inside when she gets the shot volume. She’s shooting over 60% from the field this season so far, and when she has over 10 attempts, she’s easily exceeded 13.5. The only concern with this line is that she was limited last time out against the Mystics. If they’re able to throw some big bodies at her and keep the ball away from the post, Boston may struggle, but I doubt they can repeat that performance twice.
Just because she’s a fresh face in the league doesn’t mean she isn’t already making an impact. Iriafen has been impressive her rookie year, grabbing boards left and right. However, I think the line might be a bit high. She had an incredible stretch of games where she recorded over 10 rebounds, but in their last game against the Liberty, she only had 7 and the game before that against the Fever, she was stuck at 8. Maybe she’ll bounce back, but I’m sticking with the under.
Hedging against Mitchell having a hot hand tonight is probably a smart move. Even though she’s been one of the best from outside, this season has been a bit challenging. With only a 29% shooting percentage from three-point range, she has only one game where she’s made three three-pointers. Betting on that trend continuing is the wise choice tonight.
Howards has been inconsistent in scoring this year. She had an electric game against the Dream earlier in the season, with 26 points, but since that game on the 22nd, she hasn’t scored more than 13 points. Averaging just 12 points on the year, that’s well below her averages from the last couple of years, but at 33, the pace of the game may be catching up to her as she enters a different phase of her career. Sticking with the under seems like the right play.